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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Burnley

S T T T T

0–2

Full-time

Crystal Palace

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Crystal Palace

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

0,7

0,3

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

10%

30%

Points per game

0,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

70%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

3,3

2,1

Scored

0,8

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,12 xG 1,30

68% Possession 32%

17 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

12 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 19. · Crystal Palace 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	10	8	2	0	+13	+5.0	26
2	Arsenal	10	7	3	0	+15	+10.9	24
3	Man City	10	8	0	2	+15	+12.7	24
4	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+14	+10.2	23
5	Aston Villa	10	7	1	2	+12	+5.1	22
6	Man United	11	6	0	5	-4	-3.2	18
7	Newcastle	10	5	2	3	+15	+11.7	17
8	Brighton	10	5	2	3	+4	+3.3	17
9	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.0	14
10	Brentford	10	3	4	3	+4	+6.5	13
11	Chelsea	10	3	3	4	+2	+7.1	12
12	Wolves	10	3	3	4	-4	-4.5	12
13	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-5	-3.5	12
14	Fulham	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.9	12
15	Everton	10	3	1	6	-4	+2.6	10
16	Nott'm Forest	10	2	4	4	-5	-4.5	10
17	Bournemouth	10	1	3	6	-13	-11.2	6
18	Luton	10	1	2	7	-11	-8.2	5
19	Burnley	10	1	1	8	-17	-10.9	4
20	Sheffield United	10	0	1	9	-22	-16.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	5	5	0	0	+16	+6.9	15
2	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+12	+10.4	15
3	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	+6.8	14
4	Newcastle	5	4	0	1	+10	+7.4	12
5	Man City	4	4	0	0	+8	+1.8	12
6	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.5	12
7	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+5	+2.2	11
8	Man United	6	3	0	3	-3	-1.4	9
9	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.3	7
10	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+1	+3.2	6
11	Nott'm Forest	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.1	6
12	Fulham	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.3	6
13	Chelsea	6	1	2	3	-1	+3.9	5
14	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.1	5
15	Wolves	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.6	5
16	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-6	-6.1	5
17	Everton	5	1	0	4	-1	+4.6	3
18	Luton	4	0	1	3	-3	+1.1	1
19	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-11	-8.4	1
20	Burnley	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+7	+2.5	14
2	Man City	6	4	0	2	+7	+10.9	12
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.1	10
4	Man United	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.8	9
5	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.2	8
6	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.2	7
7	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.4	7
8	Wolves	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
9	West Ham	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.7	7
10	Everton	5	2	1	2	-3	-2.0	7
11	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.8	7
12	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.4	7
13	Brighton	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.0	6
14	Fulham	6	1	3	2	-5	-5.6	6
15	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	+5	+4.3	5
16	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-5	-5.3	4
17	Nott'm Forest	6	1	1	4	-6	-5.6	4
18	Luton	6	1	1	4	-8	-9.3	4
19	Bournemouth	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.1	1
20	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-11	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.