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Süper Lig

Referee: H Meler

Samsunspor

T T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Hatayspor

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Samsunspor Hatayspor

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Süper Lig · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 15%

30%

Points per game

0,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

33%

60%

Both score Ø 52%

44%

60%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

0,6

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,04 xG 1,34

55% Possession 45%

19 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

12 Corners 4

4 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Samsunspor 20. · Hatayspor 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	11	10	1	0	+15	+15.3	31
2	Fenerbahce	10	10	0	0	+24	+20.6	30
3	Ad. Demirspor	10	6	2	2	+11	+5.7	20
4	Besiktas	10	6	1	3	+4	+4.7	19
5	Kasimpasa	11	5	3	3	-1	-4.0	18
6	Trabzonspor	10	5	1	4	+5	+0.1	16
7	Kayserispor	10	4	4	2	+2	-1.7	16
8	Hatayspor	10	3	5	2	+4	+3.7	14
9	Rizespor	10	4	2	4	-5	-5.7	14
10	Sivasspor	10	3	4	3	-1	-0.9	13
11	Ankaragücü	10	3	3	4	+3	-1.0	12
12	Antalyaspor	10	3	3	4	-1	-0.1	12
13	Karagumruk	10	2	4	4	+0	-5.5	10
14	Alanyaspor	10	2	4	4	-4	-0.5	10
15	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	-11	-5.4	10
16	Konyaspor	10	2	3	5	-6	-4.8	9
17	Gaziantep	10	3	0	7	-10	-6.8	9
18	Buyuksehyr	10	2	2	6	-7	-4.1	8
19	İstanbulspor	10	1	2	7	-11	-9.3	5
20	Samsunspor	9	0	2	7	-11	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ad. Demirspor	6	6	0	0	+14	+6.2	18
2	Fenerbahce	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.8	15
3	Galatasaray	5	5	0	0	+7	+8.1	15
4	Besiktas	5	4	1	0	+7	+5.4	13
5	Trabzonspor	5	4	0	1	+5	+2.2	12
6	Kayserispor	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.3	11
7	Kasimpasa	6	3	1	2	-2	-3.3	10
8	Ankaragücü	5	2	2	1	+4	+2.3	8
9	Hatayspor	5	2	2	1	+2	+2.5	8
10	Alanyaspor	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.8	8
11	Antalyaspor	5	2	2	1	+1	+0.3	8
12	Rizespor	5	2	2	1	+1	+0.0	8
13	Karagumruk	6	1	3	2	+0	-3.2	6
14	Gaziantep	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.1	6
15	Konyaspor	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.2	4
16	İstanbulspor	6	1	1	4	-5	-6.8	4
17	Buyuksehyr	4	1	0	3	-2	-3.2	3
18	Sivasspor	5	0	3	2	-3	+0.2	3
19	Pendikspor	5	0	2	3	-10	-6.3	2
20	Samsunspor	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	6	5	1	0	+8	+7.3	16
2	Fenerbahce	5	5	0	0	+11	+9.7	15
3	Sivasspor	5	3	1	1	+2	-1.1	10
4	Kasimpasa	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.8	8
5	Pendikspor	6	2	2	2	-1	+1.0	8
6	Hatayspor	5	1	3	1	+2	+1.2	6
7	Besiktas	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.8	6
8	Rizespor	5	2	0	3	-6	-5.8	6
9	Kayserispor	5	1	2	2	-3	-5.0	5
10	Konyaspor	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.6	5
11	Buyuksehyr	6	1	2	3	-5	-0.9	5
12	Trabzonspor	5	1	1	3	+0	-2.1	4
13	Karagumruk	4	1	1	2	+0	-2.2	4
14	Ankaragücü	5	1	1	3	-1	-3.3	4
15	Antalyaspor	5	1	1	3	-2	-0.4	4
16	Gaziantep	6	1	0	5	-8	-5.7	3
17	Ad. Demirspor	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.5	2
18	Alanyaspor	4	0	2	2	-5	-2.3	2
19	İstanbulspor	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.6	1
20	Samsunspor	6	0	1	5	-8	-0.5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.