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La Liga

Referee: Pablo González

Almeria

S T T T S

0–2

Full-time

Villarreal

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 37%

30%

43%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

52%

39%

Both score Ø 48%

61%

35%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,49 xG 2,05

29% Possession 71%

6 Shots 16

0 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 10

0 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almeria 17. · Villarreal 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	23	19	2	2	+37	+4.8	59
2	Real Madrid	23	16	4	3	+29	+9.3	52
3	Sociedad	24	13	5	6	+9	+1.3	44
4	Ath Madrid	23	12	6	5	+14	+2.8	42
5	Betis	23	12	4	7	+7	+5.0	40
6	Vallecano	23	9	7	7	+4	+0.8	34
7	Villarreal	23	10	4	9	+3	+0.2	34
8	Osasuna	23	9	6	8	-1	-5.6	33
9	Ath Bilbao	23	9	5	9	+7	-0.5	32
10	Mallorca	23	9	4	10	-3	-3.7	31
11	Girona	24	8	6	10	+0	-1.3	30
12	Espanol	23	6	9	8	-5	+0.7	27
13	Celta	23	7	6	10	-8	+0.4	27
14	Cadiz	24	6	8	10	-17	-1.1	26
15	Sevilla	23	6	7	10	-7	+3.7	25
16	Getafe	24	6	7	11	-9	-1.4	25
17	Almeria	23	7	4	12	-12	-0.6	25
18	Valladolid	23	7	3	13	-17	-5.0	24
19	Valencia	23	6	5	12	+0	-3.0	23
20	Elche	23	1	6	16	-31	-6.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	9	2	0	+23	+3.0	29
2	Real Madrid	11	7	4	0	+15	+7.9	25
3	Villarreal	11	7	1	3	+7	+2.7	22
4	Almeria	12	7	1	4	+5	+0.8	22
5	Girona	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.5	21
6	Ath Bilbao	12	6	2	4	+8	+0.7	20
7	Betis	11	6	2	3	+6	+1.7	20
8	Mallorca	11	6	2	3	+4	+0.4	20
9	Sociedad	12	5	4	3	+1	+0.9	19
10	Ath Madrid	11	5	3	3	+6	+2.8	18
11	Vallecano	11	5	3	3	+4	-0.1	18
12	Osasuna	11	6	0	5	+1	-2.2	18
13	Valencia	12	5	2	5	+7	+0.6	17
14	Valladolid	11	5	2	4	+0	+1.0	17
15	Cadiz	12	4	5	3	-3	+2.1	17
16	Celta	12	4	4	4	+2	+1.7	16
17	Getafe	13	4	4	5	-2	-1.2	16
18	Sevilla	12	4	3	5	-1	+7.1	15
19	Espanol	12	3	4	5	-4	+2.5	13
20	Elche	12	1	3	8	-10	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	10	0	2	+14	+1.8	30
2	Real Madrid	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.4	27
3	Sociedad	12	8	1	3	+8	+0.4	25
4	Ath Madrid	12	7	3	2	+8	-0.0	24
5	Betis	12	6	2	4	+1	+3.3	20
6	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	+0.9	16
7	Osasuna	12	3	6	3	-2	-3.4	15
8	Espanol	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.8	14
9	Ath Bilbao	11	3	3	5	-1	-1.2	12
10	Villarreal	12	3	3	6	-4	-2.5	12
11	Mallorca	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.1	11
12	Celta	11	3	2	6	-10	-1.4	11
13	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-6	-3.4	10
14	Girona	12	2	3	7	-6	-3.9	9
15	Getafe	11	2	3	6	-7	-0.2	9
16	Cadiz	12	2	3	7	-14	-3.2	9
17	Valladolid	12	2	1	9	-17	-6.0	7
18	Valencia	11	1	3	7	-7	-3.6	6
19	Almeria	11	0	3	8	-17	-1.5	3
20	Elche	11	0	3	8	-21	-6.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.