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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Southampton

T T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Leicester

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 25%

21%

29%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

54%

63%

Both score Ø 50%

54%

46%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,38 xG 1,93

35% Possession 65%

11 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

4 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 20. · Leicester 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	26	20	3	3	+34	+7.2	63
2	Man City	26	18	4	4	+41	+10.2	58
3	Man United	24	15	4	5	+13	+2.9	49
4	Tottenham	26	14	3	9	+10	+0.3	45
5	Newcastle	24	10	11	3	+18	-0.0	41
6	Liverpool	24	11	6	7	+12	+3.4	39
7	Fulham	25	11	6	8	+5	-1.9	39
8	Brighton	23	11	5	7	+14	+9.1	38
9	Brentford	23	8	11	4	+7	+1.7	35
10	Chelsea	25	9	7	9	-1	+1.8	34
11	Aston Villa	25	10	4	11	-7	-4.7	34
12	Crystal Palace	25	6	9	10	-11	-5.6	27
13	Wolves	26	7	6	13	-16	-4.1	27
14	Nott'm Forest	24	6	7	11	-24	-4.7	25
15	Leicester	24	7	3	14	-6	-3.5	24
16	West Ham	25	6	5	14	-10	-0.3	23
17	Leeds	25	5	7	13	-11	-0.9	22
18	Everton	25	5	6	14	-19	-3.7	21
19	Bournemouth	25	5	6	14	-27	-3.8	21
20	Southampton	24	5	3	16	-22	-3.5	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	13	11	1	1	+30	+7.5	34
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+18	+4.6	32
3	Man United	12	9	2	1	+16	+4.9	29
4	Liverpool	12	8	3	1	+18	+3.4	27
5	Tottenham	13	9	0	4	+11	+1.6	27
6	Brentford	12	6	5	1	+13	+1.3	23
7	Newcastle	12	6	5	1	+11	+0.2	23
8	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+4	+0.6	22
9	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.1	21
10	Brighton	12	6	2	4	+10	+6.6	20
11	Aston Villa	13	6	2	5	+1	-2.6	20
12	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+2	-2.0	19
13	West Ham	12	5	2	5	+3	+4.2	17
14	Crystal Palace	13	4	5	4	-5	-4.1	17
15	Wolves	13	5	2	6	-5	-0.4	17
16	Leeds	12	4	4	4	+0	+1.3	16
17	Everton	13	4	2	7	-5	+1.5	14
18	Bournemouth	12	3	4	5	-4	-1.5	13
19	Leicester	12	3	3	6	+1	-1.5	12
20	Southampton	11	1	3	7	-9	-0.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	10	1	2	+16	+2.6	31
2	Man City	13	7	3	3	+11	+2.7	24
3	Man United	12	6	2	4	-3	-2.0	20
4	Newcastle	12	4	6	2	+7	-0.2	18
5	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+4	+2.6	18
6	Tottenham	13	5	3	5	-1	-1.3	18
7	Fulham	12	5	2	5	+1	-2.6	17
8	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-8	-2.1	14
9	Chelsea	13	3	4	6	-7	-0.3	13
10	Brentford	11	2	6	3	-6	+0.4	12
11	Liverpool	12	3	3	6	-6	-0.0	12
12	Leicester	12	4	0	8	-7	-2.0	12
13	Southampton	13	4	0	9	-13	-3.0	12
14	Crystal Palace	12	2	4	6	-6	-1.5	10
15	Wolves	13	2	4	7	-11	-3.7	10
16	Bournemouth	13	2	2	9	-23	-2.4	8
17	Everton	12	1	4	7	-14	-5.2	7
18	Leeds	13	1	3	9	-11	-2.2	6
19	West Ham	13	1	3	9	-13	-4.4	6
20	Nott'm Forest	12	1	3	8	-26	-2.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.