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Serie A

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

Fiorentina

T T S T T

5–1

Full-time

Udinese

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Udinese

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

0,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

60%

47%

Both score Ø 60%

67%

53%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

3,20 xG 0,64

63% Possession 37%

20 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fiorentina 20. · Udinese 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	0	4	+20	+14.0	33
2	Milan	15	9	5	1	+11	+6.0	32
3	Napoli	15	10	1	4	+9	+5.6	31
4	Roma	16	10	0	6	+7	+0.3	30
5	Juventus	16	8	5	3	+6	+9.0	29
6	Bologna	15	7	4	4	+10	+3.4	25
7	Como	15	6	6	3	+7	+4.3	24
8	Lazio	16	6	5	5	+6	-4.0	23
9	Sassuolo	16	6	3	7	+1	-6.2	21
10	Cremonese	16	5	6	5	+0	-6.8	21
11	Udinese	15	6	3	6	-6	-2.2	21
12	Torino	16	5	5	6	-10	-4.0	20
13	Atalanta	15	4	7	4	+1	+6.3	19
14	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-5.9	16
15	Cagliari	16	3	6	7	-6	-10.0	15
16	Genoa	15	3	5	7	-7	+2.1	14
17	Parma	15	3	5	7	-8	-4.3	14
18	Verona	15	2	6	7	-9	-1.1	12
19	Pisa	16	1	8	7	-10	-5.1	11
20	Fiorentina	15	0	6	9	-14	-1.3	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+8	+1.6	19
2	Inter	8	6	0	2	+16	+9.8	18
3	Juventus	8	5	3	0	+7	+7.3	18
4	Milan	8	5	2	1	+4	+3.9	17
5	Lazio	8	4	3	1	+8	+2.2	15
6	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
7	Roma	8	5	0	3	+4	+2.0	15
8	Bologna	7	4	1	2	+5	+5.1	13
9	Atalanta	8	3	4	1	+3	+7.0	13
10	Udinese	8	3	2	3	-4	+0.8	11
11	Torino	8	3	2	3	-5	-4.1	11
12	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	+0	-3.1	10
13	Cremonese	7	2	3	2	+0	+0.4	9
14	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-2	-4.2	9
15	Lecce	8	2	3	3	-2	-0.7	9
16	Verona	7	1	3	3	-1	+1.0	6
17	Pisa	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.2	6
18	Parma	8	1	3	4	-5	-2.7	6
19	Genoa	8	1	3	4	-6	+1.5	6
20	Fiorentina	7	0	2	5	-6	+0.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	+2.1	15
2	Inter	7	5	0	2	+4	+4.1	15
3	Roma	8	5	0	3	+3	-1.6	15
4	Bologna	8	3	3	2	+5	-1.6	12
5	Napoli	8	4	0	4	+1	+4.0	12
6	Cremonese	9	3	3	3	+0	-7.3	12
7	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.1	11
8	Juventus	8	3	2	3	-1	+1.7	11
9	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-2	-3.0	10
10	Como	8	2	3	3	-1	+0.9	9
11	Torino	8	2	3	3	-5	+0.2	9
12	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.7	8
13	Lazio	8	2	2	4	-2	-6.2	8
14	Parma	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.7	8
15	Lecce	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.3	7
16	Atalanta	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.7	6
17	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
18	Verona	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.1	6
19	Pisa	8	0	5	3	-6	-3.9	5
20	Fiorentina	8	0	4	4	-8	-2.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.