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Conference League
Referee: M Al-Emara
Mainz
T T T U U
2–0
Full-time
Samsunspor
U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Samsunspor
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,3
3,0
Scored
0,7
1,2
Conceded
1,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 7/5 matches
Win Ø 59%
57%
60%
Points per game
1,9
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
43%
80%
Both score Ø 49%
57%
40%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,4
2,0
Conceded
0,9
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,70 xG 0,73
46% Possession 54%
13 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 3
2 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Mainz Samsunspor
9′
🟨 Marius Mouandilmadji
33′
🔁 Y. E. Cift
↦ O. Ntcham
1–0 S. Widmer ⚽
Lee Jae-Sung
44′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 N. Amiri ⚽
48′
57′
🔁 J. Mendes
↦ Z. Yavru
57′
🔁 T. Bulbul
↦ A. Musaba
B. Hollerbach 🔁
↦ N. Weiper
69′
75′
🟨 Yunus Emre Çift
W. Boving 🔁
↦ S. Widmer
77′
84′
🟨 Rick Van Drongelen
85′
🔁 S. Aydogdu
↦ C. Holse
85′
🔁 T. Borevkovic
↦ L. Tomasson
L. Maloney 🔁
↦ Lee Jae-Sung
91′
F. Moreno Fell 🔁
↦ N. Amiri
91′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Mainz

3-5-1-1
33 D. Batz G
31 D. Kohr D
25 A. Hanche-Olsen D
48 K. Potulski D
21 D. da Costa M
8 P. Nebel M
6 K. Sano M
7 Lee Jae-Sung M
30 S. Widmer M
10 N. Amiri F
44 N. Weiper F
Bench (12)
1 L. Riess
35 L. Babatz
9 A. Nordin
11 A. Sieb
14 W. Boving
15 L. Maloney
16 S. Bell
17 B. Hollerbach
23 K. Schopp
36 F. Moreno Fell
37 B. Bobzien
42 D. Gleiber

Coach: Urs Fischer

Samsunspor

4-1-4-1
1 O. Kocuk G
18 Z. Yavru D
37 L. Satka D
4 R. Van Drongelen D
17 L. Tomasson D
29 A. Makoumbou M
11 E. Kilinc M
21 C. Holse M
10 O. Ntcham M
7 A. Musaba M
9 Marius F
Bench (9)
12 A. Posiadala
48 E. B. Toruz
2 J. Mendes
8 S. Aydogdu
16 T. Bulbul
22 P. Yaldir
24 T. Borevkovic
28 S. Gonul
55 Y. E. Cift

Coach: Thorsten Fink

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.