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Bundesliga

Referee: F Badstübner

RB Leipzig

U S U T U

2–0

Full-time

St Pauli

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 38%

45%

30%

Points per game

1,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

60%

35%

Both score Ø 40%

55%

25%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,54 xG 0,57

56% Possession 44%

11 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 5. · St Pauli 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	21	17	3	1	+46	+40.1	54
2	Leverkusen	21	13	7	1	+22	+17.3	46
3	Ein Frankfurt	21	11	6	4	+18	+10.0	39
4	Stuttgart	21	10	5	6	+8	+8.8	35
5	RB Leipzig	20	9	6	5	+5	-7.5	33
6	Freiburg	21	10	3	8	-8	-0.9	33
7	Mainz	21	9	5	7	+9	-0.5	32
8	M'gladbach	21	9	4	8	+2	-5.2	31
9	Wolfsburg	21	8	6	7	+8	-2.9	30
10	Werder Bremen	21	8	6	7	-5	-2.1	30
11	Dortmund	21	8	5	8	+1	+5.1	29
12	Augsburg	21	7	6	8	-11	-8.1	27
13	Union Berlin	21	6	6	9	-7	-1.7	24
14	St Pauli	20	6	3	11	-4	-4.3	21
15	Hoffenheim	21	4	6	11	-18	-10.5	18
16	Heidenheim	21	4	2	15	-18	-7.8	14
17	Holstein Kiel	21	3	4	14	-21	-13.5	13
18	Bochum	21	2	5	14	-27	-16.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	10	1	0	+28	+25.5	31
2	Leverkusen	11	8	2	1	+14	+11.2	26
3	Freiburg	10	7	1	2	+6	+3.9	22
4	Ein Frankfurt	10	6	3	1	+13	+9.8	21
5	Dortmund	11	6	3	2	+10	+7.0	21
6	Stuttgart	11	6	2	3	+10	+12.0	20
7	M'gladbach	11	6	2	3	+9	+0.7	20
8	RB Leipzig	9	5	3	1	+6	+1.0	18
9	Mainz	11	5	3	3	+4	+4.8	18
10	Augsburg	10	5	2	3	+2	+3.3	17
11	Union Berlin	10	4	4	2	+1	+3.0	16
12	Wolfsburg	11	3	4	4	+0	+0.1	13
13	Werder Bremen	10	3	4	3	-3	+0.6	13
14	Hoffenheim	11	3	2	6	-8	-1.8	11
15	Holstein Kiel	11	3	1	7	-11	-5.5	10
16	St Pauli	10	2	3	5	-4	+0.6	9
17	Bochum	10	2	3	5	-8	-3.3	9
18	Heidenheim	10	2	1	7	-9	-3.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	7	2	1	+18	+14.6	23
2	Leverkusen	10	5	5	0	+8	+6.1	20
3	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	3	3	+5	+0.2	18
4	Wolfsburg	10	5	2	3	+8	-2.9	17
5	Werder Bremen	11	5	2	4	-2	-2.7	17
6	RB Leipzig	11	4	3	4	-1	-8.6	15
7	Stuttgart	10	4	3	3	-2	-3.2	15
8	Mainz	10	4	2	4	+5	-5.3	14
9	St Pauli	10	4	0	6	+0	-4.9	12
10	M'gladbach	10	3	2	5	-7	-6.0	11
11	Freiburg	11	3	2	6	-14	-4.8	11
12	Augsburg	11	2	4	5	-13	-11.5	10
13	Union Berlin	11	2	2	7	-8	-4.7	8
14	Dortmund	10	2	2	6	-9	-1.9	8
15	Heidenheim	11	2	1	8	-9	-4.6	7
16	Hoffenheim	10	1	4	5	-10	-8.7	7
17	Holstein Kiel	10	0	3	7	-10	-8.0	3
18	Bochum	11	0	2	9	-19	-13.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.