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Bundesliga

Referee: T Welz

Leverkusen

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Mainz

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

100%

83%

Points per game

3,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

2,3

2,5

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 57%

63%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

75%

56%

Both score Ø 72%

88%

56%

Average goals

3,9

3,1

Scored

2,5

1,9

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,76 xG 0,72

67% Possession 33%

20 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 4

10 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

4 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 2. · Mainz 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	3	1	+35	+28.5	39
2	Leverkusen	16	10	5	1	+17	+13.0	35
3	Ein Frankfurt	16	9	3	4	+13	+5.5	30
4	RB Leipzig	16	9	3	4	+6	-2.1	30
5	Mainz	16	8	4	4	+10	+0.6	28
6	Freiburg	16	8	3	5	-2	+2.2	27
7	Stuttgart	16	7	5	4	+5	+8.1	26
8	Dortmund	17	7	4	6	+3	+3.5	25
9	Werder Bremen	16	7	4	5	-1	+0.1	25
10	Wolfsburg	16	7	3	6	+5	-3.9	24
11	M'gladbach	16	7	3	6	+4	-2.0	24
12	Union Berlin	16	4	5	7	-7	-4.2	17
13	Augsburg	16	4	4	8	-16	-7.0	16
14	St Pauli	16	4	2	10	-8	-5.5	14
15	Hoffenheim	16	3	5	8	-9	-6.3	14
16	Heidenheim	16	4	1	11	-13	-4.4	13
17	Holstein Kiel	17	3	2	12	-18	-10.1	11
18	Bochum	16	1	3	12	-24	-15.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+11	+6.3	20
2	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+18	+14.5	19
3	Freiburg	8	6	1	1	+6	+4.1	19
4	Leverkusen	8	5	2	1	+9	+9.6	17
5	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.8	17
6	M'gladbach	9	5	1	3	+6	+0.8	16
7	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	2	1	+8	+7.0	14
8	Stuttgart	8	4	2	2	+6	+9.5	14
9	Mainz	9	4	2	3	+2	+3.0	14
10	Augsburg	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.4	14
11	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.1	12
12	Hoffenheim	9	3	1	5	-4	-0.0	10
13	Werder Bremen	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.9	9
14	Holstein Kiel	9	3	0	6	-9	-5.5	9
15	Wolfsburg	8	2	2	4	-4	-3.5	8
16	Heidenheim	8	2	1	5	-6	-0.0	7
17	St Pauli	8	1	2	5	-7	-0.1	5
18	Bochum	7	1	2	4	-8	-4.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	6	2	1	+17	+14.0	20
2	Leverkusen	8	5	3	0	+8	+3.4	18
3	Wolfsburg	8	5	1	2	+9	-0.4	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	1	3	+5	-1.5	16
5	Werder Bremen	9	5	1	3	+1	+0.9	16
6	Mainz	7	4	2	1	+8	-2.4	14
7	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+0	-4.9	13
8	Stuttgart	8	3	3	2	-1	-1.3	12
9	St Pauli	8	3	0	5	-1	-5.4	9
10	M'gladbach	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.8	8
11	Freiburg	8	2	2	4	-8	-1.8	8
12	Heidenheim	8	2	0	6	-7	-4.3	6
13	Dortmund	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.9	5
14	Union Berlin	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.3	5
15	Hoffenheim	7	0	4	3	-5	-6.3	4
16	Holstein Kiel	8	0	2	6	-9	-4.6	2
17	Augsburg	7	0	2	5	-17	-10.5	2
18	Bochum	9	0	1	8	-16	-11.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.