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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Stuttgart

S S S T S

2–1

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

4,2

Scored

2,5

2,3

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 50%

44%

56%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

69%

56%

Both score Ø 60%

69%

50%

Average goals

3,4

3,1

Scored

1,9

1,8

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,57 xG 0,93

58% Possession 42%

14 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 0

2 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Stuttgart 8. · RB Leipzig 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	3	1	+35	+28.5	39
2	Leverkusen	17	11	5	1	+18	+14.0	38
3	Ein Frankfurt	17	10	3	4	+16	+7.4	33
4	RB Leipzig	16	9	3	4	+6	-2.1	30
5	Mainz	17	8	4	5	+9	-0.5	28
6	Wolfsburg	17	8	3	6	+9	-1.3	27
7	Freiburg	17	8	3	6	-5	+0.3	27
8	Stuttgart	16	7	5	4	+5	+8.1	26
9	Dortmund	17	7	4	6	+3	+3.5	25
10	Werder Bremen	16	7	4	5	-1	+0.1	25
11	M'gladbach	17	7	3	7	+0	-4.6	24
12	Union Berlin	16	4	5	7	-7	-4.2	17
13	Augsburg	16	4	4	8	-16	-7.0	16
14	Hoffenheim	16	3	5	8	-9	-6.3	14
15	St Pauli	17	4	2	11	-9	-6.2	14
16	Heidenheim	16	4	1	11	-13	-4.4	13
17	Holstein Kiel	17	3	2	12	-18	-10.1	11
18	Bochum	17	2	3	12	-23	-15.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+11	+6.3	20
2	Leverkusen	9	6	2	1	+10	+10.6	20
3	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+18	+14.5	19
4	Freiburg	8	6	1	1	+6	+4.1	19
5	Ein Frankfurt	8	5	2	1	+11	+8.9	17
6	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.8	17
7	M'gladbach	9	5	1	3	+6	+0.8	16
8	Stuttgart	8	4	2	2	+6	+9.5	14
9	Mainz	9	4	2	3	+2	+3.0	14
10	Augsburg	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.4	14
11	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.1	12
12	Wolfsburg	9	3	2	4	+0	-0.9	11
13	Hoffenheim	9	3	1	5	-4	-0.0	10
14	Werder Bremen	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.9	9
15	Holstein Kiel	9	3	0	6	-9	-5.5	9
16	Bochum	8	2	2	4	-7	-3.4	8
17	Heidenheim	8	2	1	5	-6	-0.0	7
18	St Pauli	8	1	2	5	-7	-0.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	6	2	1	+17	+14.0	20
2	Leverkusen	8	5	3	0	+8	+3.4	18
3	Wolfsburg	8	5	1	2	+9	-0.4	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	1	3	+5	-1.5	16
5	Werder Bremen	9	5	1	3	+1	+0.9	16
6	Mainz	8	4	2	2	+7	-3.5	14
7	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+0	-4.9	13
8	Stuttgart	8	3	3	2	-1	-1.3	12
9	St Pauli	9	3	0	6	-2	-6.2	9
10	M'gladbach	8	2	2	4	-6	-5.4	8
11	Freiburg	9	2	2	5	-11	-3.8	8
12	Heidenheim	8	2	0	6	-7	-4.3	6
13	Dortmund	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.9	5
14	Union Berlin	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.3	5
15	Hoffenheim	7	0	4	3	-5	-6.3	4
16	Holstein Kiel	8	0	2	6	-9	-4.6	2
17	Augsburg	7	0	2	5	-17	-10.5	2
18	Bochum	9	0	1	8	-16	-11.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.