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Bundesliga
Referee: T Welz
FC Koln
U T S S S
0–4
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Koln Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,5
Scored
2,0
2,7
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,8
This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 59%
39%
78%
Points per game
1,6
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 73%
56%
89%
Both score Ø 73%
78%
67%
Average goals
3,2
4,2
Scored
1,7
3,2
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+2,2
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

50% Possession 50%
11 Shots 19
3 Shots on target 9
3 Blocked shots 8
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 12
7 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match FC Koln 6. · Bayern Munich 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 18 14 1 3 +39 43
2 Dortmund 19 13 1 5 +20 40
3 Hoffenheim 18 9 4 5 +11 31
4 Freiburg 19 8 6 5 +8 30
5 Leverkusen 18 8 5 5 +12 29
6 FC Koln 18 7 7 4 +2 28
7 Union Berlin 18 7 7 4 +2 28
8 Ein Frankfurt 18 7 6 5 +2 27
9 RB Leipzig 18 7 4 7 +11 25
10 Mainz 18 7 3 8 +5 24
11 Bochum 18 7 2 9 -9 23
12 M'gladbach 18 6 4 8 -9 22
13 Hertha 18 6 3 9 -17 21
14 Wolfsburg 18 6 2 10 -13 20
15 Stuttgart 18 4 6 8 -9 18
16 Augsburg 18 4 6 8 -11 18
17 Bielefeld 18 3 8 7 -8 17
18 Greuther Furth 18 1 3 14 -36 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

FC Koln Bayern Munich
Luca Kilian 🟨
9′
9′
R. Lewandowski 0–1
T. Müller
10′
ℹ️ Robert Lewandowski
VAR: Goal confirmed
25′
C. Tolisso 0–2
T. Müller
Mark Uth ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
32′
Half-time 0–2
J. Thielmann 🔁
↦ L. Schaub
57′
D. Ljubičić 🔁
↦ O. Duda
58′
60′
🔁 L. Sané
↦ J. Musiala
62′
R. Lewandowski 0–3
L. Sané
S. Andersson 🔁
↦ A. Modeste
72′
K. Schindler 🔁
↦ M. Uth
73′
74′
R. Lewandowski 0–4
L. Sané
75′
🔁 T. Nianzou
↦ C. Tolisso
75′
🔁 O. Richards
↦ M. Sabitzer
K. Ehizibue 🔁
↦ B. Schmitz
80′
83′
🔁 M. Tillman
↦ T. Müller
83′
🔁 P. Wanner
↦ Marc Roca
Full-time 0–4

Line-ups

FC Koln

4-1-3-2
20 M. Schwäbe G
2 B. Schmitz D
4 T. Hübers D
15 L. Kilian D
11 F. Kainz M
14 J. Hector D
21 L. Schaub M
18 O. Duda M
6 S. Özcan M
27 A. Modeste F
13 M. Uth F
Bench (9)
29 J. Thielmann
7 D. Ljubičić
9 S. Andersson
17 K. Schindler
19 K. Ehizibue
23 J. Horn
25 T. Lemperle
40 J. Urbig
31 T. Ostrák

Coach: S. Baumgart

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
4 N. Süle D
5 B. Pavard D
18 M. Sabitzer D
7 S. Gnabry M
24 C. Tolisso M
6 J. Kimmich D
22 Marc Roca M
42 J. Musiala M
25 T. Müller M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (8)
10 L. Sané
23 T. Nianzou
3 O. Richards
40 M. Tillman
14 P. Wanner
34 L. Copado
26 S. Ulreich
2 D. Upamecano

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,70
U
5,77
B ✓
1,35
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,29
U2,5
3,59
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

T Welz · 64 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.