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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Preston

S U T S S

1–1

Full-time

Birmingham

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,0

This season — Championship · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 33%

38%

28%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

50%

48%

Both score Ø 43%

58%

28%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 9

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 13. · Birmingham 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	27	15	7	5	+20	52
2	Fulham	25	15	6	4	+40	51
3	Bournemouth	27	14	8	5	+20	50
4	West Brom	26	12	9	5	+13	45
5	Middlesbrough	26	12	6	8	+7	42
6	QPR	25	12	5	8	+6	41
7	Coventry	25	11	7	7	+8	40
8	Huddersfield	25	11	7	7	+5	40
9	Stoke	25	11	5	9	+5	38
10	Blackpool	27	10	6	11	-3	36
11	Luton	23	9	7	7	+8	34
12	Sheffield United	22	10	4	8	+5	34
13	Preston	24	9	7	8	-2	34
14	Nott'm Forest	24	9	6	9	+4	33
15	Millwall	25	8	9	8	-1	33
16	Bristol City	26	9	6	11	-8	33
17	Derby	26	7	11	8	-2	32
18	Reading	25	9	4	12	-12	31
19	Swansea	23	8	6	9	-2	30
20	Birmingham	25	7	6	12	-12	27
21	Cardiff	26	6	6	14	-18	24
22	Hull	25	6	5	14	-10	23
23	Peterborough	23	5	4	14	-24	19
24	Peterboro	24	5	4	15	-27	19
25	Barnsley	25	2	9	14	-20	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	15	10	3	2	+17	33
2	Coventry	13	8	2	3	+12	26
3	West Brom	12	7	5	0	+12	26
4	Middlesbrough	14	8	2	4	+8	26
5	Fulham	12	7	3	2	+16	24
6	Bournemouth	12	7	3	2	+13	24
7	Stoke	14	7	3	4	+6	24
8	Huddersfield	11	7	2	2	+6	23
9	Blackpool	15	7	2	6	-1	23
10	Preston	12	6	4	2	+4	22
11	Luton	12	6	3	3	+8	21
12	QPR	12	6	3	3	+5	21
13	Derby	12	5	5	2	+3	20
14	Swansea	12	5	4	3	+5	19
15	Millwall	11	5	4	2	+3	19
16	Reading	14	5	4	5	-5	19
17	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	+8	17
18	Nott'm Forest	13	5	2	6	-1	17
19	Bristol City	14	4	5	5	-2	17
20	Peterborough	11	4	4	3	+3	16
21	Peterboro	12	4	4	4	+0	16
22	Birmingham	12	4	3	5	-3	15
23	Hull	12	3	3	6	-4	12
24	Barnsley	12	2	4	6	-7	10
25	Cardiff	12	2	1	9	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	13	8	3	2	+24	27
2	Bournemouth	15	7	5	3	+7	26
3	QPR	13	6	2	5	+1	20
4	Blackburn	12	5	4	3	+3	19
5	West Brom	14	5	4	5	+1	19
6	Huddersfield	14	4	5	5	-1	17
7	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	-3	17
8	Cardiff	14	4	5	5	-8	17
9	Nott'm Forest	11	4	4	3	+5	16
10	Middlesbrough	12	4	4	4	-1	16
11	Bristol City	12	5	1	6	-6	16
12	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-1	14
13	Millwall	14	3	5	6	-4	14
14	Coventry	12	3	5	4	-4	14
15	Luton	11	3	4	4	+0	13
16	Blackpool	12	3	4	5	-2	13
17	Derby	14	2	6	6	-5	12
18	Preston	12	3	3	6	-6	12
19	Reading	11	4	0	7	-7	12
20	Birmingham	13	3	3	7	-9	12
21	Hull	13	3	2	8	-6	11
22	Swansea	11	3	2	6	-7	11
23	Barnsley	13	0	5	8	-13	5
24	Peterboro	12	1	0	11	-27	3
25	Peterborough	12	1	0	11	-27	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.