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Super League

Referee: N Gianforte

Winterthur

T T U S T

0–3

Full-time

Luzern

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Winterthur Luzern

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

2,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 25%

14%

35%

Points per game

0,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

78%

81%

Both score Ø 73%

70%

76%

Average goals

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

2,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,54 xG 2,33

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 27

0 Shots on target 9

6 Blocked shots 9

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Winterthur 12. · Luzern 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	37	24	2	11	+28	+0.6	74
2	St. Gallen	37	20	9	8	+25	+10.4	69
3	Lugano	37	18	10	9	+13	+1.8	64
4	Sion	37	16	14	7	+23	+14.0	62
5	Basel	37	16	8	13	+1	+10.4	56
6	Young Boys	37	15	9	13	+11	+2.6	54
7	Luzern	37	13	11	13	+7	+2.3	50
8	Servette	37	12	14	11	+6	+12.5	50
9	Lausanne	37	11	9	17	-12	+1.2	42
10	Zurich	37	11	5	21	-21	-9.6	38
11	Grasshoppers	37	7	9	21	-28	-19.9	30
12	Winterthur	37	5	8	24	-53	-26.2	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	19	12	2	5	+16	-1.3	38
2	Lugano	18	11	3	4	+12	+0.3	36
3	Sion	19	9	7	3	+15	+7.3	34
4	St. Gallen	18	10	2	6	+10	+13.6	32
5	Young Boys	18	9	4	5	+18	+12.8	31
6	Basel	19	8	6	5	+8	+19.4	30
7	Servette	19	7	7	5	+8	+8.3	28
8	Lausanne	18	6	5	7	+2	+10.5	23
9	Luzern	19	5	7	7	+4	+4.6	22
10	Zurich	18	7	1	10	-5	-0.3	22
11	Grasshoppers	19	4	5	10	-8	-7.8	17
12	Winterthur	18	3	5	10	-17	-4.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	19	10	7	2	+15	-3.3	37
2	Thun	18	12	0	6	+12	+1.9	36
3	Sion	18	7	7	4	+8	+6.7	28
4	Luzern	18	8	4	6	+3	-2.3	28
5	Lugano	19	7	7	5	+1	+1.4	28
6	Basel	18	8	2	8	-7	-9.0	26
7	Young Boys	19	6	5	8	-7	-10.1	23
8	Servette	18	5	7	6	-2	+4.2	22
9	Lausanne	19	5	4	10	-14	-9.3	19
10	Zurich	19	4	4	11	-16	-9.3	16
11	Grasshoppers	18	3	4	11	-20	-12.1	13
12	Winterthur	19	2	3	14	-36	-21.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.