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Bundesliga

Referee: H Lechner

Wolfsberger AC

S T U T T

2–2

Full-time

Sturm Graz

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wolfsberger AC Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 45%

35%

55%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

65%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

65%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,83 xG 2,70

46% Possession 54%

11 Shots 20

3 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 10

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Wolfsberger AC 9. · Sturm Graz 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	20	10	6	4	+17	+5.3	36
2	Sturm Graz	20	11	1	8	+5	+3.7	34
3	LASK	20	10	3	7	+0	+2.5	33
4	Austria Vienna	20	10	2	8	+2	+0.6	32
5	Hartberg	20	8	7	5	+5	-2.0	31
6	SK Rapid	20	8	5	7	+0	-1.1	29
7	Altach	20	7	7	6	+1	-1.1	28
8	Ried	21	8	4	9	-2	-1.4	28
9	Wolfsberger AC	20	7	4	9	+1	-4.8	25
10	Tirol	20	6	7	7	-2	+4.8	25
11	Grazer AK	21	4	8	9	-12	-2.4	20
12	BW Linz	20	4	2	14	-15	-4.1	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Altach	10	5	4	1	+4	+2.4	19
2	LASK	10	6	1	3	+1	+0.0	19
3	Salzburg	10	5	2	3	+8	+3.2	17
4	Austria Vienna	10	5	1	4	-1	+1.6	16
5	Tirol	10	4	3	3	+2	+2.4	15
6	Hartberg	10	4	3	3	+2	+0.1	15
7	Ried	10	4	3	3	+1	+0.2	15
8	Wolfsberger AC	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.4	14
9	SK Rapid	10	4	2	4	+1	+0.1	14
10	Grazer AK	11	3	5	3	-1	+0.8	14
11	Sturm Graz	10	4	1	5	-4	+1.8	13
12	BW Linz	10	3	1	6	-3	-0.6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	10	7	0	3	+9	+1.9	21
2	Salzburg	10	5	4	1	+9	+2.1	19
3	Austria Vienna	10	5	1	4	+3	-1.0	16
4	Hartberg	10	4	4	2	+3	-2.1	16
5	SK Rapid	10	4	3	3	-1	-1.2	15
6	LASK	10	4	2	4	-1	+2.5	14
7	Ried	11	4	1	6	-3	-1.6	13
8	Wolfsberger AC	10	3	2	5	-1	-3.4	11
9	Tirol	10	2	4	4	-4	+2.4	10
10	Altach	10	2	3	5	-3	-3.5	9
11	Grazer AK	10	1	3	6	-11	-3.1	6
12	BW Linz	10	1	1	8	-12	-3.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.