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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Brighton

U T T T S

2–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 28%

30%

26%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

44%

48%

Both score Ø 50%

63%

37%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,32 xG 0,79

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 14. · Nott'm Forest 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	28	18	7	3	+35	+29.1	61
2	Man City	28	18	5	5	+32	+19.5	59
3	Aston Villa	28	15	6	7	+8	-4.2	51
4	Man United	27	13	9	5	+11	+14.0	48
5	Liverpool	28	14	6	8	+10	+12.7	48
6	Chelsea	27	12	9	6	+17	+14.9	45
7	Brentford	28	13	4	11	+4	+7.3	43
8	Everton	28	11	7	10	-1	-7.0	40
9	Bournemouth	28	9	12	7	-2	+0.8	39
10	Fulham	27	11	4	12	-3	-6.3	37
11	Sunderland	28	9	10	9	-5	-15.0	37
12	Newcastle	28	10	6	12	-2	+6.9	36
13	Crystal Palace	27	9	8	10	-3	+7.9	35
14	Brighton	27	8	10	9	+2	+1.9	34
15	Leeds	28	7	10	11	-10	-2.4	31
16	Tottenham	27	7	8	12	-4	-11.2	29
17	Nott'm Forest	27	7	6	14	-14	-8.6	27
18	West Ham	28	6	7	15	-20	-11.7	25
19	Burnley	28	4	7	17	-24	-31.7	19
20	Wolves	29	2	7	20	-31	-17.0	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+25	+13.2	35
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+23	+15.8	32
3	Aston Villa	14	9	2	3	+9	+2.8	29
4	Liverpool	14	8	3	3	+10	+9.3	27
5	Man United	13	8	3	2	+10	+12.1	27
6	Sunderland	14	7	5	2	+9	-3.4	26
7	Brentford	14	7	4	3	+9	+8.6	25
8	Bournemouth	14	6	6	2	+6	+10.1	24
9	Chelsea	14	6	5	3	+7	+8.9	23
10	Fulham	13	7	2	4	+6	-1.3	23
11	Newcastle	14	7	2	5	+3	+8.3	23
12	Leeds	14	6	4	4	+3	+6.3	22
13	Brighton	13	5	6	2	+6	+3.6	21
14	Everton	14	4	4	6	-3	-1.6	16
15	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	+8.4	15
16	Nott'm Forest	14	3	4	7	-6	+0.7	13
17	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-10	-1.8	12
18	Tottenham	14	2	4	8	-5	-3.7	10
19	Burnley	14	2	4	8	-8	-11.9	10
20	Wolves	15	2	3	10	-15	-6.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	8	5	2	+12	+13.3	29
2	Man City	14	7	3	4	+7	+6.3	24
3	Everton	14	7	3	4	+2	-5.4	24
4	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+10	+6.0	22
5	Aston Villa	14	6	4	4	-1	-7.0	22
6	Man United	14	5	6	3	+1	+1.9	21
7	Liverpool	14	6	3	5	+0	+3.4	21
8	Crystal Palace	13	6	2	5	+1	-0.5	20
9	Tottenham	13	5	4	4	+1	-7.5	19
10	Brentford	14	6	0	8	-5	-1.3	18
11	Bournemouth	14	3	6	5	-8	-9.3	15
12	Nott'm Forest	13	4	2	7	-8	-9.3	14
13	Fulham	14	4	2	8	-9	-5.0	14
14	Brighton	14	3	4	7	-4	-1.7	13
15	Newcastle	14	3	4	7	-5	-1.3	13
16	West Ham	14	3	4	7	-10	-9.9	13
17	Sunderland	14	2	5	7	-14	-11.6	11
18	Leeds	14	1	6	7	-13	-8.7	9
19	Burnley	14	2	3	9	-16	-19.8	9
20	Wolves	14	0	4	10	-16	-10.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.