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Super League

Referee: T Bognar

Panathinaikos

U U S U S

3–1

Full-time

Aris Thessalonikis

U S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Panathinaikos Aris Thessalonikis

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 38%

48%

27%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

48%

27%

Both score Ø 51%

52%

50%

Average goals

2,6

1,9

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,36 xG 0,71

42% Possession 58%

10 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Panathinaikos 5. · Aris Thessalonikis 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Olympiakos	25	17	6	2	+32	+6.4	57
2	AEK	25	17	6	2	+29	+5.4	57
3	PAOK	24	16	6	2	+32	+5.0	54
4	Levadeiakos	25	11	8	6	+19	-4.0	41
5	Panathinaikos	23	11	7	5	+11	+1.2	40
6	OFI Crete	23	10	1	12	-4	-2.7	31
7	Aris Thessalonikis	22	6	10	6	-3	-1.5	28
8	Aris	23	6	10	7	-5	–	28
9	Volos NFC	25	8	4	13	-13	+1.0	28
10	Atromitos	24	7	6	11	-4	+0.5	27
11	Kifisia	24	5	10	9	-6	+0.7	25
12	Panetolikos	25	7	3	15	-14	-2.3	24
13	Larisa	25	5	9	11	-16	-1.2	24
14	Asteras Tripolis	25	3	8	14	-18	-2.5	17
15	Panserraikos	24	3	4	17	-40	-6.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PAOK	13	11	2	0	+23	+2.8	35
2	Olympiakos	12	10	1	1	+20	+2.2	31
3	AEK	12	10	1	1	+17	+2.3	31
4	Levadeiakos	12	7	3	2	+19	-2.1	24
5	Panathinaikos	11	7	3	1	+12	+0.2	24
6	OFI Crete	13	7	0	6	+9	-1.0	21
7	Volos NFC	12	4	4	4	-4	+1.3	16
8	Aris Thessalonikis	11	2	8	1	+1	+0.1	14
9	Aris	11	2	8	1	+1	–	14
10	Larisa	13	3	5	5	-8	-0.5	14
11	Kifisia	12	3	4	5	-1	+1.7	13
12	Asteras Tripolis	12	2	5	5	-2	+0.1	11
13	Atromitos	13	2	4	7	-5	+0.6	10
14	Panserraikos	12	3	1	8	-16	-5.2	10
15	Panetolikos	12	3	0	9	-10	+0.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AEK	13	7	5	1	+12	+3.1	26
2	Olympiakos	13	7	5	1	+12	+4.2	26
3	PAOK	11	5	4	2	+9	+2.2	19
4	Atromitos	11	5	2	4	+1	-0.1	17
5	Levadeiakos	13	4	5	4	+0	-1.9	17
6	Panathinaikos	12	4	4	4	-1	+0.9	16
7	Panetolikos	13	4	3	6	-4	-2.6	15
8	Aris Thessalonikis	11	4	2	5	-4	-1.6	14
9	Aris	12	4	2	6	-6	–	14
10	Kifisia	12	2	6	4	-5	-1.0	12
11	Volos NFC	13	4	0	9	-9	-0.3	12
12	Larisa	12	2	4	6	-8	-0.7	10
13	OFI Crete	10	3	1	6	-13	-1.6	10
14	Asteras Tripolis	13	1	3	9	-16	-2.6	6
15	Panserraikos	12	0	3	9	-24	-0.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.