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Serie B

Referee: D Di Marco

Cesena

T T S T T

2–3

Full-time

Spezia

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cesena Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,3

1,2

Scored

1,2

0,3

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 32%

44%

20%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

56%

32%

Both score Ø 56%

64%

48%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,77 xG 1,25

52% Possession 48%

22 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 0

3 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cesena 8. · Spezia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	26	17	5	4	+29	+22.5	56
2	Frosinone	26	15	8	3	+24	+6.1	53
3	Palermo	26	14	9	3	+26	+8.4	51
4	Monza	25	15	6	4	+18	+9.1	51
5	Catanzaro	26	12	8	6	+10	-0.7	44
6	Modena	25	11	7	7	+14	+7.1	40
7	Juve Stabia	25	9	11	5	+1	+1.6	38
8	Cesena	25	11	4	10	-2	+4.3	37
9	Sudtirol	26	7	12	7	-1	-3.2	33
10	Empoli	26	7	9	10	-4	+1.3	30
11	Carrarese	25	7	9	9	-4	-6.9	30
12	Padova	26	7	9	10	-6	-6.5	30
13	Sampdoria	26	7	8	11	-6	+1.1	29
14	Avellino	25	7	7	11	-12	-13.9	28
15	Mantova	26	7	5	14	-15	-1.8	26
16	Reggiana	25	6	7	12	-8	-3.1	25
17	Virtus Entella	26	5	10	11	-13	-6.7	25
18	Spezia	25	5	7	13	-12	-0.0	22
19	Bari	26	4	10	12	-18	-14.0	22
20	Pescara	26	3	9	14	-21	-4.6	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Palermo	14	10	3	1	+20	+5.8	33
2	Venezia	13	11	0	2	+18	+10.1	33
3	Monza	13	10	2	1	+14	+6.5	32
4	Catanzaro	13	7	5	1	+9	+0.6	26
5	Frosinone	12	7	3	2	+13	+2.3	24
6	Juve Stabia	12	6	6	0	+8	+1.9	24
7	Sampdoria	13	6	4	3	+4	+3.1	22
8	Modena	13	6	3	4	+8	-0.7	21
9	Virtus Entella	13	5	6	2	+4	-2.1	21
10	Carrarese	12	5	5	2	+7	+2.2	20
11	Sudtirol	12	5	3	4	+4	-2.9	18
12	Cesena	12	5	3	4	+1	+3.5	18
13	Avellino	13	5	3	5	-4	-8.4	18
14	Empoli	14	3	8	3	+4	+3.7	17
15	Mantova	13	5	2	6	-6	+0.0	17
16	Reggiana	12	4	4	4	+1	-1.7	16
17	Padova	13	3	6	4	-1	-5.4	15
18	Bari	13	3	5	5	-4	-8.5	14
19	Spezia	13	3	4	6	-7	-2.7	13
20	Pescara	13	2	5	6	-5	-3.6	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	14	8	5	1	+11	+3.8	29
2	Venezia	13	6	5	2	+11	+12.3	23
3	Modena	12	5	4	3	+6	+7.9	19
4	Monza	12	5	4	3	+4	+2.5	19
5	Cesena	13	6	1	6	-3	+0.8	19
6	Palermo	12	4	6	2	+6	+2.6	18
7	Catanzaro	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.2	18
8	Padova	13	4	3	6	-5	-1.2	15
9	Sudtirol	14	2	9	3	-5	-0.2	15
10	Juve Stabia	13	3	5	5	-7	-0.3	14
11	Empoli	12	4	1	7	-8	-2.5	13
12	Avellino	12	2	4	6	-8	-5.5	10
13	Carrarese	13	2	4	7	-11	-9.1	10
14	Spezia	12	2	3	7	-5	+2.6	9
15	Reggiana	13	2	3	8	-9	-1.4	9
16	Mantova	13	2	3	8	-9	-1.8	9
17	Bari	13	1	5	7	-14	-5.5	8
18	Sampdoria	13	1	4	8	-10	-2.0	7
19	Pescara	13	1	4	8	-16	-1.0	7
20	Virtus Entella	13	0	4	9	-17	-4.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.