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Premiership

Referee: S McLean

St Mirren

T T T U U

1–0

Full-time

Hearts

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Mirren Hearts

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,8

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,9

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

30%

54%

Both score Ø 43%

39%

46%

Average goals

2,1

2,8

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

21 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

4 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match St Mirren 10. · Hearts 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	24	16	6	2	+28	+12.3	54
2	Celtic	24	15	3	6	+20	+10.2	48
3	Rangers	24	13	9	2	+20	+5.0	48
4	Motherwell	24	11	10	3	+20	+9.3	43
5	Hibernian	24	9	9	6	+10	+1.0	36
6	Falkirk	24	9	6	9	-4	+2.7	33
7	Aberdeen	24	8	4	12	-7	-9.2	28
8	Dundee United	23	5	10	8	-9	-11.2	25
9	Dundee	24	6	5	13	-18	-7.2	23
10	St Mirren	23	4	8	11	-14	+1.9	20
11	Kilmarnock	24	3	8	13	-20	-7.1	17
12	Livingston	24	1	8	15	-26	-7.6	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celtic	12	9	1	2	+19	+9.5	28
2	Hearts	12	8	4	0	+16	+5.3	28
3	Motherwell	12	8	3	1	+17	+9.6	27
4	Rangers	12	7	4	1	+9	+7.3	25
5	Hibernian	12	5	5	2	+10	+4.2	20
6	Falkirk	12	4	5	3	+3	+4.9	17
7	Aberdeen	12	4	4	4	+4	-4.4	16
8	Dundee	11	5	1	5	-2	-1.0	16
9	St Mirren	12	3	5	4	-3	+4.3	14
10	Dundee United	12	3	4	5	-5	-6.5	13
11	Kilmarnock	12	2	3	7	-8	-1.2	9
12	Livingston	12	1	4	7	-8	-1.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	12	8	2	2	+12	+7.0	26
2	Rangers	12	6	5	1	+11	-2.4	23
3	Celtic	12	6	2	4	+1	+0.7	20
4	Motherwell	12	3	7	2	+3	-0.4	16
5	Hibernian	12	4	4	4	+0	-3.2	16
6	Falkirk	12	5	1	6	-7	-2.2	16
7	Dundee United	11	2	6	3	-4	-4.7	12
8	Aberdeen	12	4	0	8	-11	-4.7	12
9	Kilmarnock	12	1	5	6	-12	-5.9	8
10	Dundee	13	1	4	8	-16	-6.2	7
11	St Mirren	11	1	3	7	-11	-2.4	6
12	Livingston	12	0	4	8	-18	-5.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.