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Premiership

Referee: D Nicolson

Kilmarnock

U T S T S

2–3

Full-time

Celtic

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Kilmarnock Celtic

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,3

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

2,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 40%

15%

64%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

65%

60%

Both score Ø 51%

58%

44%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,94 xG 2,81

39% Possession 61%

17 Shots 24

7 Shots on target 10

3 Blocked shots 6

7 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Kilmarnock 11. · Celtic 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	26	17	6	3	+28	+12.5	57
2	Rangers	26	14	10	2	+24	+7.2	52
3	Celtic	25	16	3	6	+21	+12.5	51
4	Motherwell	25	11	11	3	+20	+9.3	44
5	Hibernian	27	11	9	7	+12	+2.4	42
6	Falkirk	27	11	6	10	-3	+3.0	39
7	Aberdeen	24	8	4	12	-7	-9.2	28
8	Dundee United	25	6	10	9	-9	-11.8	28
9	Dundee	26	6	6	14	-19	-7.3	24
10	St Mirren	26	5	8	13	-16	+0.5	23
11	Kilmarnock	26	4	8	14	-23	-8.6	20
12	Livingston	27	1	9	17	-28	-10.6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+20	+11.8	31
2	Hearts	13	9	4	0	+17	+5.5	31
3	Motherwell	13	8	4	1	+17	+9.7	28
4	Rangers	13	8	4	1	+13	+9.6	28
5	Hibernian	14	7	5	2	+13	+5.9	26
6	Falkirk	14	5	5	4	+3	+4.1	20
7	Dundee	12	5	2	5	-2	-1.5	17
8	St Mirren	13	4	5	4	-2	+4.3	17
9	Aberdeen	12	4	4	4	+4	-4.4	16
10	Dundee United	12	3	4	5	-5	-6.5	13
11	Kilmarnock	13	3	3	7	-7	-0.4	12
12	Livingston	13	1	4	8	-9	-2.9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	13	8	2	3	+11	+7.0	26
2	Rangers	13	6	6	1	+11	-2.4	24
3	Celtic	12	6	2	4	+1	+0.7	20
4	Falkirk	13	6	1	6	-6	-1.1	19
5	Motherwell	12	3	7	2	+3	-0.4	16
6	Hibernian	13	4	4	5	-1	-3.5	16
7	Dundee United	13	3	6	4	-4	-5.3	15
8	Aberdeen	12	4	0	8	-11	-4.7	12
9	Kilmarnock	13	1	5	7	-16	-8.2	8
10	Dundee	14	1	4	9	-17	-5.8	7
11	St Mirren	13	1	3	9	-14	-3.8	6
12	Livingston	14	0	5	9	-19	-7.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.