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Premiership

Referee: G Irvine

Kilmarnock

T U T S T

4–3

Full-time

St Mirren

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Kilmarnock St Mirren

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,7

1,5

Scored

1,2

0,3

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 25/24 matches

Win Ø 17%

12%

21%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

64%

29%

Both score Ø 47%

56%

38%

Average goals

2,9

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,70 xG 1,88

57% Possession 43%

20 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 7

8 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 4

3 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Kilmarnock 11. · St Mirren 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	26	17	6	3	+28	+12.5	57
2	Rangers	25	14	9	2	+24	+7.2	51
3	Celtic	24	15	3	6	+20	+10.2	48
4	Motherwell	24	11	10	3	+20	+9.3	43
5	Hibernian	26	10	9	7	+10	+1.8	39
6	Falkirk	26	11	6	9	-2	+3.4	39
7	Aberdeen	24	8	4	12	-7	-9.2	28
8	Dundee United	24	5	10	9	-10	-12.2	25
9	St Mirren	24	5	8	11	-13	+1.9	23
10	Dundee	25	6	5	14	-19	-6.8	23
11	Kilmarnock	25	3	8	14	-24	-9.4	17
12	Livingston	25	1	8	16	-27	-8.7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	13	9	4	0	+17	+5.5	31
2	Celtic	12	9	1	2	+19	+9.5	28
3	Rangers	13	8	4	1	+13	+9.6	28
4	Motherwell	12	8	3	1	+17	+9.6	27
5	Hibernian	13	6	5	2	+11	+5.2	23
6	Falkirk	13	5	5	3	+4	+4.5	20
7	St Mirren	13	4	5	4	-2	+4.3	17
8	Aberdeen	12	4	4	4	+4	-4.4	16
9	Dundee	11	5	1	5	-2	-1.0	16
10	Dundee United	12	3	4	5	-5	-6.5	13
11	Kilmarnock	12	2	3	7	-8	-1.2	9
12	Livingston	13	1	4	8	-9	-2.9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	13	8	2	3	+11	+7.0	26
2	Rangers	12	6	5	1	+11	-2.4	23
3	Celtic	12	6	2	4	+1	+0.7	20
4	Falkirk	13	6	1	6	-6	-1.1	19
5	Motherwell	12	3	7	2	+3	-0.4	16
6	Hibernian	13	4	4	5	-1	-3.5	16
7	Dundee United	12	2	6	4	-5	-5.7	12
8	Aberdeen	12	4	0	8	-11	-4.7	12
9	Kilmarnock	13	1	5	7	-16	-8.2	8
10	Dundee	14	1	4	9	-17	-5.8	7
11	St Mirren	11	1	3	7	-11	-2.4	6
12	Livingston	12	0	4	8	-18	-5.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.