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La Liga

Referee: R De Burgos

Vallecano

S T T T T

3–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

2,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 22/23 matches

Win Ø 40%

23%

57%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

41%

39%

Both score Ø 45%

41%

48%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,61 xG 0,70

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 8

3 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 18. · Ath Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	24	19	3	2	+34	+29.9	60
2	Barcelona	23	19	1	3	+40	+30.0	58
3	Ath Madrid	23	13	6	4	+20	+10.5	45
4	Villarreal	23	14	3	6	+18	+6.3	45
5	Betis	23	10	8	5	+9	+6.3	38
6	Espanol	24	10	5	9	-4	+1.3	35
7	Celta	24	8	10	6	+5	+2.9	34
8	Sociedad	24	8	7	9	-1	-0.6	31
9	Ath Bilbao	24	9	4	11	-7	+7.7	31
10	Osasuna	24	8	6	10	+0	-5.0	30
11	Getafe	24	8	5	11	-8	-6.3	29
12	Sevilla	24	7	5	12	-8	-14.0	26
13	Alaves	24	7	5	12	-9	-1.6	26
14	Girona	23	6	8	9	-15	-10.3	26
15	Elche	24	5	10	9	-4	-16.1	25
16	Mallorca	23	6	6	11	-9	-13.0	24
17	Valencia	23	5	8	10	-14	-1.6	23
18	Vallecano	22	5	7	10	-12	+0.0	22
19	Levante	22	4	6	12	-12	-9.1	18
20	Oviedo	23	3	7	13	-23	-17.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	11	0	0	+29	+18.0	33
2	Real Madrid	12	11	0	1	+21	+18.1	33
3	Ath Madrid	12	10	1	1	+18	+13.8	31
4	Villarreal	12	9	1	2	+17	+6.1	28
5	Betis	11	7	1	3	+10	+5.9	22
6	Osasuna	11	6	3	2	+7	+2.6	21
7	Elche	13	5	6	2	+7	-3.3	21
8	Sociedad	12	6	2	4	+4	+1.4	20
9	Ath Bilbao	12	6	2	4	+1	+8.1	20
10	Espanol	13	6	2	5	-2	-0.0	20
11	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	+4	+0.7	19
12	Alaves	12	5	3	4	+1	+1.5	18
13	Valencia	12	4	5	3	+2	+8.1	17
14	Getafe	12	4	3	5	+0	-3.1	15
15	Sevilla	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.1	15
16	Celta	12	3	5	4	+2	+2.9	14
17	Girona	11	3	4	4	-8	-7.7	13
18	Vallecano	10	2	6	2	-1	+5.4	12
19	Oviedo	12	2	5	5	-8	-9.4	11
20	Levante	10	1	4	5	-9	-5.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	8	3	1	+13	+11.7	27
2	Barcelona	12	8	1	3	+11	+12.0	25
3	Celta	12	5	5	2	+3	+0.0	20
4	Villarreal	11	5	2	4	+1	+0.2	17
5	Betis	12	3	7	2	-1	+0.4	16
6	Espanol	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.3	15
7	Ath Madrid	11	3	5	3	+2	-3.4	14
8	Getafe	12	4	2	6	-8	-3.1	14
9	Girona	12	3	4	5	-7	-2.6	13
10	Levante	12	3	2	7	-3	-3.7	11
11	Sociedad	12	2	5	5	-5	-1.9	11
12	Sevilla	11	3	2	6	-7	-9.9	11
13	Ath Bilbao	12	3	2	7	-8	-0.4	11
14	Vallecano	12	3	1	8	-11	-5.4	10
15	Osasuna	13	2	3	8	-7	-7.6	9
16	Alaves	12	2	2	8	-10	-3.2	8
17	Valencia	11	1	3	7	-16	-9.7	6
18	Mallorca	12	1	2	9	-13	-13.7	5
19	Oviedo	11	1	2	8	-15	-8.0	5
20	Elche	11	0	4	7	-11	-12.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.