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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Crystal Palace

T S U S U

3–0

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 29/28 matches

Win Ø 43%

24%

61%

Points per game

1,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

52%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

52%

36%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

31% Possession 69%

6 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 2

2 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crystal Palace 12. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	30	23	4	3	+52	73
2	Liverpool	30	22	6	2	+57	72
3	Chelsea	29	17	8	4	+35	59
4	Tottenham	30	17	3	10	+15	54
5	Arsenal	28	17	3	8	+13	54
6	West Ham	31	15	6	10	+11	51
7	Man United	30	14	9	7	+8	51
8	Wolves	31	15	4	12	+6	49
9	Leicester	28	10	7	11	-4	37
10	Aston Villa	30	11	3	16	+0	36
11	Southampton	30	8	12	10	-9	36
12	Crystal Palace	29	7	13	9	+1	34
13	Brighton	30	7	13	10	-10	34
14	Brentford	31	9	6	16	-11	33
15	Newcastle	30	7	10	13	-21	31
16	Leeds	31	7	9	15	-33	30
17	Everton	28	7	4	17	-19	25
18	Watford	30	6	4	20	-28	22
19	Burnley	28	3	12	13	-18	21
20	Norwich	30	4	6	20	-45	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	3	0	+32	39
2	Man City	14	11	1	2	+30	34
3	Arsenal	15	10	2	3	+12	32
4	Tottenham	15	10	1	4	+14	31
5	West Ham	16	9	3	4	+8	30
6	Man United	16	8	4	4	+6	28
7	Chelsea	14	7	5	2	+15	26
8	Leicester	14	7	3	4	+5	24
9	Wolves	16	7	2	7	+2	23
10	Southampton	15	5	7	3	+6	22
11	Crystal Palace	15	4	7	4	+5	19
12	Everton	14	6	1	7	+0	19
13	Aston Villa	14	5	3	6	+3	18
14	Newcastle	14	4	6	4	-5	18
15	Brentford	15	5	2	8	-3	17
16	Leeds	16	4	5	7	-12	17
17	Brighton	16	3	6	7	-10	15
18	Burnley	14	2	6	6	-8	12
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-21	9
20	Watford	14	2	1	11	-20	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Liverpool	15	10	3	2	+25	33
3	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+20	33
4	Wolves	15	8	2	5	+4	26
5	Man United	14	6	5	3	+2	23
6	Tottenham	15	7	2	6	+1	23
7	Arsenal	13	7	1	5	+1	22
8	West Ham	15	6	3	6	+3	21
9	Brighton	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Aston Villa	16	6	0	10	-3	18
11	Brentford	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	15
13	Watford	16	4	3	9	-8	15
14	Southampton	15	3	5	7	-15	14
15	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-9	13
16	Newcastle	16	3	4	9	-16	13
17	Leeds	15	3	4	8	-21	13
18	Burnley	14	1	6	7	-10	9
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-24	9
20	Everton	14	1	3	10	-19	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.