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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Manuel Mota

Nacional

T T T S S

1–0

Full-time

Tondela

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

This season — Taça de Portugal · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

4 Corners 5

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 22. · Tondela 34. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vilaverdense	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Varzim	4	4	0	0	+4	12
3	São João Ver	4	3	0	1	+10	9
4	Beira-Mar	3	3	0	0	+10	9
5	Dumiense	3	3	0	0	+9	9
6	Vitoria Setubal	3	3	0	0	+9	9
7	Pêro Pinheiro	4	3	0	1	+8	9
8	Academico Viseu	3	3	0	0	+8	9
9	Valadares Gaia	3	3	0	0	+6	9
10	Sanjoanense	3	3	0	0	+6	9
11	Camacha	4	2	1	1	+4	7
12	Oliveira Hospital	4	2	1	1	-5	7
13	Porto	2	2	0	0	+9	6
14	FC Serpa	3	2	0	1	+8	6
15	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+8	6
16	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+5	6
17	Fontinhas	3	2	0	1	+5	6
18	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	6
19	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
20	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
21	Montalegre	3	2	0	1	+4	6
22	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+4	6
23	Farense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
24	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
25	Sertanense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
26	Rabo Peixe	2	2	0	0	+2	6
27	Olhanense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
28	Canelas 2010	3	2	0	1	+2	6
29	Pevidem	2	2	0	0	+2	6
30	Bragança	3	2	0	1	+1	6
31	Mafra	3	2	0	1	+0	6
32	Tirsense	3	2	0	1	-1	6
33	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
34	Tondela	2	1	1	0	+2	4
35	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
36	Penafiel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
37	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
38	Machico	2	1	1	0	+1	4
39	Oriental Lisboa	3	1	1	1	+0	4
40	Pombal	3	1	1	1	-2	4
41	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
42	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
43	Merelinense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
44	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
45	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
46	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
47	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
48	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Amora	2	1	0	1	+1	3
50	Ferreiras	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Real	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Resende	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
68	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
69	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Imortal Albufeira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	Courense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
72	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
73	Anadia	2	1	0	1	-5	3
74	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	AR São Martinho	2	0	1	1	-2	1
82	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Sp Lisbon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
140	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
141	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
142	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
143	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
144	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
145	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
147	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
148	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
149	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
150	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
151	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
152	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vilaverdense	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Varzim	4	4	0	0	+4	12
3	Pêro Pinheiro	4	3	0	1	+8	9
4	Valadares Gaia	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Oliveira Hospital	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
7	Vitoria Setubal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Academico Viseu	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Bragança	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
13	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
14	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Machico	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
17	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
18	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	+3	3
19	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Canelas 2010	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Mafra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Olhanense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	AR São Martinho	2	0	1	1	-2	1
47	Merelinense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Resende	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Vianense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Montalegre	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
80	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
81	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
82	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
83	Anadia	1	0	0	1	-6	0
84	Courense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
85	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Beira-Mar	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+9	6
3	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+8	6
4	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Farense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Pevidem	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Camacha	3	1	1	1	+3	4
12	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
14	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Real	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
48	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	CF Os Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Sp Lisbon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
100	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
101	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-4	0
102	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
103	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
104	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
105	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-7	0
106	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.