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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Tondela

T U S T S

2–1

Full-time

Nacional

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,7

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-2,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 26%

33%

19%

Points per game

1,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

44%

48%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

51% Possession 49%

6 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

14 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Tondela 12. · Nacional 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	28	21	7	0	+36	70
2	Porto	27	19	6	2	+32	63
3	Sp Braga	28	18	4	6	+21	58
4	Benfica	27	17	6	4	+30	57
5	Pacos Ferreira	28	13	5	10	-1	44
6	Guimaraes	27	11	5	11	-4	38
7	Santa Clara	28	10	6	12	+3	36
8	Moreirense	28	8	11	9	-7	35
9	Portimonense	27	9	5	13	+0	32
10	Gil Vicente	27	9	4	14	-7	31
11	Belenenses	28	6	13	9	-7	31
12	Tondela	27	9	4	14	-16	31
13	Rio Ave	28	6	11	11	-10	29
14	Boavista	28	6	10	12	-10	28
15	Famalicao	27	6	9	12	-12	27
16	Maritimo	28	8	3	17	-17	27
17	Farense	28	6	7	15	-10	25
18	Nacional	27	5	6	16	-21	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	10	4	0	+17	34
2	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+14	32
3	Sp Braga	14	10	2	2	+12	32
4	Porto	13	9	3	1	+15	30
5	Pacos Ferreira	14	9	2	3	+5	29
6	Tondela	13	7	2	4	+1	23
7	Portimonense	13	6	3	4	+8	21
8	Santa Clara	14	5	4	5	+5	19
9	Guimaraes	14	6	1	7	-5	19
10	Rio Ave	14	4	5	5	-1	17
11	Moreirense	14	3	8	3	-2	17
12	Belenenses	14	4	5	5	-3	17
13	Boavista	14	4	3	7	-5	15
14	Gil Vicente	13	4	2	7	-3	14
15	Maritimo	14	4	2	8	-11	14
16	Farense	14	3	4	7	-2	13
17	Nacional	14	3	3	8	-9	12
18	Famalicao	14	2	6	6	-9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	11	3	0	+19	36
2	Porto	14	10	3	1	+17	33
3	Sp Braga	14	8	2	4	+9	26
4	Benfica	13	7	4	2	+16	25
5	Guimaraes	13	5	4	4	+1	19
6	Moreirense	14	5	3	6	-5	18
7	Santa Clara	14	5	2	7	-2	17
8	Gil Vicente	14	5	2	7	-4	17
9	Famalicao	13	4	3	6	-3	15
10	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	3	7	-6	15
11	Belenenses	14	2	8	4	-4	14
12	Boavista	14	2	7	5	-5	13
13	Maritimo	14	4	1	9	-6	13
14	Farense	14	3	3	8	-8	12
15	Rio Ave	14	2	6	6	-9	12
16	Portimonense	14	3	2	9	-8	11
17	Nacional	13	2	3	8	-12	9
18	Tondela	14	2	2	10	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.