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League Cup

Referee: J Gillett

Chelsea

T S S S T

6–3

Full-time

Leeds

T S S U U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 18

8 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 26. · Leeds 27. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bradford	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.7	7
2	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
3	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
4	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
5	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
6	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
7	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
8	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
9	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
10	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
11	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
12	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
13	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
14	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
15	Leyton Orient	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
16	Millwall	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
17	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
18	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
19	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
20	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
21	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
22	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.8	3
23	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
24	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
25	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
26	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.7	3
27	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
28	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
29	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
30	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
31	Crewe	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
32	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
33	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
34	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
35	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
36	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
37	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
38	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
39	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
40	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
41	Stevenage	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.3	3
42	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
43	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.5	3
44	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
45	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
55	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
56	Doncaster	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
57	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.8	1
58	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
59	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
60	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
69	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
70	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
71	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
72	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
73	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
77	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
78	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
79	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
80	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
81	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
82	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
83	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
84	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
85	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
86	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
2	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
3	Bradford	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
4	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
5	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
6	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
7	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
8	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
10	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.8	3
11	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.7	3
14	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Crewe	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
18	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
20	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
21	Leyton Orient	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
22	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
23	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
24	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
25	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
34	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
35	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
43	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
44	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
45	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
46	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
47	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
48	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
49	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
50	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
51	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
52	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
53	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
54	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
3	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
4	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
5	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
7	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
10	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
12	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
14	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
16	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
17	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
18	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Walsall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
24	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
25	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
26	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Doncaster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
32	Leyton Orient	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
34	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
35	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
36	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
45	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
46	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
47	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
48	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
49	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
50	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
51	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Apr -26 Chelsea – Leeds 1–0 10. Feb -26 Chelsea – Leeds 2–2 3. Dec -25 Leeds – Chelsea 3–1 28. Feb -24 Chelsea – Leeds 3–2 4. Mar -23 Chelsea – Leeds 1–0

Match report

Chelsea Leeds

23′

⚽ Tarik Muharemovic 0–1

Harry Wilson

Reece James 🔁

↦ Reggie Watson

45′

Morgan Rogers 🔁

↦ Malo Gusto

45′

Cole Palmer 🔁

↦ Jamie Gittens

45′

Pedro Neto 🔁

↦ Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves

45′

Half-time 0–1

Reggie Watson 🟨

46′

48′

⚽ Brenden Aaronson 0–2

Lukas Nmecha

1–2 Cole Palmer ⚽

53′

2–2 Cole Palmer ⚽

Morgan Rogers

55′

3–2 Pedro Neto ⚽

Morgan Rogers

60′

4–2 Danny Welbeck ⚽

Morgan Rogers

65′

66′

🔁 Anton Stach

↦ Daniel James

66′

🔁 Dominic Calvert-Lewin

↦ Lukas Nmecha

67′

🔁 Noah Okafor

↦ Brenden Aaronson

67′

🔁 Ao Tanaka

↦ Sean Longstaff

75′

⚽ Dominic Calvert-Lewin 4–3

Noah Okafor

Wesley Fofana 🔁

↦ Levi Colwill

76′

78′

🔁 Gabriel Gudmundsson

↦ Melvin Bard

5–3 Valentin Barco ⚽

80′

Xabier Alonso Olano 🟨

82′

6–3 Danny Welbeck ⚽

94′

Full-time 6–3

Line-ups

Chelsea

3-4-2-1

M. Penders G

Joshua Kofi Acheampong D

M. Lacroix D

L. Colwill D

M. Gusto D

R. Watson M

V. Barco M

Pep Chavarría D

Estêvão M

J. Bynoe-Gittens M

D. Welbeck F

Bench (9)

23 Geovany Tcherno Quenda

17 M. Rogers

3 W. Fofana

21 J. Hato

24 R. James

9 João Pedro

1 E. Martínez

7 Pedro Neto

10 C. Palmer

Coach: Xabi Alonso

Leeds

3-4-2-1

M. Zetterer G

J. Justin D

J. Bijol D

T. Muharemović D

D. James M

E. Ampadu M

S. Longstaff M

M. Bard M

H. Wilson M

B. Aaronson M

L. Nmecha F

Bench (9)

2 J. Bogle

9 D. Calvert-Lewin

30 N. Elvedi

3 G. Gudmundsson

19 N. Okafor

18 A. Stach

22 A. Tanaka

1 J. Trafford

23 J. Bahoya

Coach: D. Farke

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

1,51

🔒

1xBet 1,55 Betano 1,53 Marathonbet 1,53 Unibet 1,52 Dafabet 1,52 Pinnacle 1,52 Superbet 1,51 BetVictor 1,50 William Hill 1,50 10Bet 1,49 Bet365 1,48 Betfair 1,47 SBO 1,44 888Sport 1,44

4,50

🔒

Dafabet 4,70 Superbet 4,60 Pinnacle 4,59 1xBet 4,55 Betano 4,55 BetVictor 4,50 Marathonbet 4,50 Betfair 4,33 10Bet 4,30 Unibet 4,30 Bet365 4,20 888Sport 4,00 William Hill 4,00 SBO 3,94

6,00

🔒

Betano 6,50 Marathonbet 6,35 Bet365 6,25 Pinnacle 6,14 1xBet 6,10 10Bet 6,00 Dafabet 6,00 BetVictor 6,00 Superbet 5,75 Unibet 5,50 Betfair 5,50 888Sport 5,50 William Hill 5,50 SBO 4,94

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,17

🔒

Betano 1,20 Pinnacle 1,19 Superbet 1,19 10Bet 1,18 888Sport 1,18 Bet365 1,17 Betfair 1,17 Unibet 1,16 1xBet 1,15 BetVictor 1,15 Marathonbet 1,15

U1,5

4,80

🔒

Unibet 5,10 Bet365 5,00 Betfair 5,00 Pinnacle 4,96 Superbet 4,85 1xBet 4,80 Marathonbet 4,80 10Bet 4,75 BetVictor 4,75 Betano 4,65 888Sport 4,60

O2,5 ✓

1,57

🔒

Betano 1,62 1xBet 1,60 Pinnacle 1,60 Superbet 1,60 Marathonbet 1,60 10Bet 1,57 Bet365 1,57 888Sport 1,57 SBO 1,55 Unibet 1,55 BetVictor 1,55 Betfair 1,53

U2,5

2,37

🔒

Betfair 2,45 Pinnacle 2,41 Unibet 2,40 1xBet 2,38 Marathonbet 2,38 Betano 2,37 Superbet 2,37 10Bet 2,35 Bet365 2,35 888Sport 2,30 SBO 2,29 BetVictor 2,24

O3,5 ✓

2,40

🔒