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Bundesliga
Referee: H Lechner
Tirol
S U S S T
1–5
Full-time
Grazer AK
U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tirol Grazer AK
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 29%
35%
22%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
48%
57%
Both score Ø 63%
65%
61%
Average goals
2,8
2,6
Scored
1,4
1,0
Conceded
1,4
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,30 xG 3,13
42% Possession 58%
5 Shots 17
2 Shots on target 9
1 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
0 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Tirol 8. · Grazer AK 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Sturm Graz 24 13 3 8 +10 +7.0 42
2 Salzburg 24 10 8 6 +15 +9.3 38
3 LASK 23 11 5 7 +2 +6.4 38
4 SK Rapid 23 10 6 7 +2 -3.0 36
5 Austria Vienna 23 11 3 9 +1 +1.5 36
6 Hartberg 23 8 10 5 +5 -5.2 34
7 Altach 23 8 8 7 +1 -4.1 32
8 Tirol 23 8 7 8 +0 +4.7 31
9 Ried 23 9 4 10 -3 -2.0 31
10 Wolfsberger AC 23 7 5 11 -3 -10.4 26
11 Grazer AK 23 5 8 10 -12 -1.6 23
12 BW Linz 23 4 3 16 -18 -2.5 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Tirol Grazer AK
1–0 N. Baden Frederiksen
M. Wels
19′
21′
🟨 Christian Lichtenberger
23′
J. Italiano 1–1
David Kubatta 🟨
26′
39′
R. Harakate 1–2
L. Vraa-Jensen
Half-time 1–2
56′
ℹ️ Thorsten Schriebl
VAR: Penalty confirmed
58′
R. Harakate 1–3
L. Hinterseer 🔁
↦ A. Ola-Adebomi
59′
T. Sabitzer 🔁
↦ L. Sulzbacher
59′
65′
J. Italiano 1–4
D. Jaunegg 🔁
↦ D. Kubatta
68′
C. Huetz 🔁
↦ N. Baden Frederiksen
68′
74′
🔁 D. Maderner
↦ A. Hofleitner
74′
🔁 T. Koch
↦ C. Lichtenberger
81′
🔁 M. Grosse
↦ R. Harakate
84′
ℹ️ Daniel Maderner
VAR: Penalty confirmed
85′
J. Italiano 1–5
87′
🔁 M. Satin
↦ T. Schriebl
87′
🔁 D. Frieser
↦ J. Italiano
88′
🟨 Donovan Pines
90′
🟨 Daniel Maderner
Christian Huetz 🟨
93′
Full-time 1–5

Line-ups

Tirol

3-4-2-1
40 A. Stejskal G
23 M. Boras D
5 J. Lawrence D
14 D. Kubatta D
6 L. Sulzbacher M
4 V. Muller M
17 J. Naschberger M
20 B. Bockle M
8 N. Baden Frederiksen F
37 M. Wels F
9 A. Ola-Adebomi F
Bench (9)
13 A. Eckmayr
16 L. Hinterseer
28 T. Geris
18 L. Schweighofer
22 D. Falkner
10 T. Sabitzer
27 D. Jaunegg
21 Y. Votter
19 C. Huetz

Coach: Philipp Semlic

Grazer AK

3-5-1-1
12 F. Stolz G
82 B. Owusu D
2 D. Pines D
3 L. Vraa-Jensen D
14 J. Italiano M
20 T. Schriebl M
6 M. Olesen M
10 C. Lichtenberger M
32 L. Klassen M
25 A. Hofleitner F
22 R. Harakate F
Bench (9)
98 F. Ehmann
1 J. Meierhofer
9 D. Maderner
7 M. Satin
8 T. Koch
28 D. Frieser
11 M. Grosse
15 L. Graf
24 T. Paumgartner

Coach: Ferdinand Feldhofer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

H Lechner · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.