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Ekstraklasa

Referee: Szymon Marciniak

Lech Poznan

S S S U S

2–1

Full-time

Jagiellonia

T U S S S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan Jagiellonia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,5

Scored

3,5

2,3

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,8

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 75%

75%

Points per game

2,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

48% Possession 52%

16 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lech Poznan 3. · Jagiellonia 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Legia	6	3	3	0	+8	+3.8	12
2	Gornik Zabrze	5	4	0	1	+4	+0.6	12
3	Lech Poznan	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.4	10
4	Wisla	6	3	1	2	+2	+4.3	10
5	GKS Katowice	5	3	0	2	+6	-1.9	9
6	Jagiellonia	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.4	9
7	Pogon Szczecin	5	2	2	1	+3	-1.1	8
8	Korona Kielce	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.7	8
9	Zaglebie	5	2	2	1	+1	+0.6	8
10	Cracovia	6	2	2	2	-1	+3.2	8
11	Piast Gliwice	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.6	7
12	Radomiak Radom	6	2	1	3	-7	-3.0	7
13	Widzew Lodz	6	1	3	2	+0	-0.1	6
14	Slask Wroclaw	6	1	3	2	-1	-0.6	6
15	Motor Lublin	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.3	5
16	Wisla Plock	5	1	1	3	-7	-0.9	4
17	Wieczysta Krakow	5	1	0	4	-4	-0.9	3
18	Rakow	5	0	0	5	-7	-4.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wisla	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.1	9
2	Legia	3	2	1	0	+7	+2.0	7
3	Zaglebie	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.8	7
4	Radomiak Radom	4	2	1	1	+0	-0.5	7
5	GKS Katowice	2	2	0	0	+7	+2.4	6
6	Gornik Zabrze	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.0	6
7	Cracovia	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.2	6
8	Slask Wroclaw	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.8	5
9	Lech Poznan	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.6	4
10	Pogon Szczecin	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.2	4
11	Piast Gliwice	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.0	4
12	Jagiellonia	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.4	3
13	Motor Lublin	3	1	0	2	-2	+2.4	3
14	Korona Kielce	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
15	Widzew Lodz	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.4	1
16	Wisla Plock	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.2	1
17	Wieczysta Krakow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
18	Rakow	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.0	6
2	Gornik Zabrze	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
3	Lech Poznan	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
4	Korona Kielce	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.9	6
5	Widzew Lodz	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.4	5
6	Legia	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.8	5
7	Pogon Szczecin	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
8	GKS Katowice	3	1	0	2	-1	-4.3	3
9	Wieczysta Krakow	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.2	3
10	Piast Gliwice	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.6	3
11	Wisla Plock	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.1	3
12	Cracovia	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.0	2
13	Motor Lublin	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.7	2
14	Wisla	3	0	1	2	-2	+2.2	1
15	Slask Wroclaw	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.2	1
16	Zaglebie	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.2	1
17	Rakow	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.4	0
18	Radomiak Radom	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Apr -26 Jagiellonia – Lech Poznan 0–0 28. Sep -25 Lech Poznan – Jagiellonia 2–2 16. Mar -25 Jagiellonia – Lech Poznan 2–1 14. Sep -24 Lech Poznan – Jagiellonia 5–0 17. Feb -24 Jagiellonia – Lech Poznan 1–2

Match report

Lech Poznan Jagiellonia

1–0 P. Rodriguez ⚽

J. Pereira

43′

Half-time 1–0

46′

🔁 G. Montoia

↦ Y. Kobayashi

49′

⚽ Y. Kobayashi 1–1

B. Vital

59′

🔁 K. Szmyt

↦ O. Sow

59′

🔁 A. Klynge

↦ S. Lozano

F. Jagiello 🔁

↦ G. Berggren

63′

Y. Agnero 🔁

↦ A. Sayyadmanesh

64′

68′

🔁 H. Finndell

↦ E. Kozlowski

L. Bengtsson 🔁

↦ L. Palma

72′

M. Ishak 🔁

↦ P. Rodriguez

73′

P. Walemark 🟨

80′

🟨 R. Conceicao

82′

🔁 Y. Sylla

↦ N. Prelec

R. Gumny 🔁

↦ P. Walemark

83′

2–1 R. Gumny ⚽

M. Gurgul

87′

92′

🟨 H. Finndell

Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1

M. Lis G

J. Pereira D

M. Skrzypczak D

W. Monka D

M. Gurgul D

R. Murawski M

G. Berggren M

P. Walemark M

P. Rodriguez M

L. Palma M

A. Sayyadmanesh F

Bench (8)

33 M. Pruchniewski

4 J. Moutinho

59 T. Yegbe

20 R. Gumny

24 F. Jagiello

9 M. Ishak

14 L. Bengtsson

7 Y. Agnero

Coach: Niels Frederiksen

Jagiellonia

4-4-1-1

S. Abramowicz G

N. Wojtuszek D

B. Vital D

Y. Kobayashi D

C. Polak D

O. Sow M

T. Romanczuk M

E. Kozlowski M

R. Conceicao M

S. Lozano F

N. Prelec F

Bench (12)

1 M. Perchel

44 A. Konstantopoulos

20 B. Wdowik

23 G. Montoia

14 H. Finndell

19 A. Klynge

8 D. Drachal

32 A. Cirkovic

9 D. Rallis

72 K. Jozwiak

7 K. Szmyt

17 Y. Sylla

Coach: Adrian Siemieniec

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

1,65

🔒

Betano 1,70 Dafabet 1,70 William Hill 1,67 Unibet 1,66 Pinnacle 1,66 1xBet 1,65 Bet365 1,65 Superbet 1,64 Betfair 1,62 BetVictor 1,62 Marathonbet 1,62 10Bet 1,61 SBO 1,60

4,20

🔒

Unibet 4,40 Pinnacle 4,37 Betfair 4,33 10Bet 4,30 Dafabet 4,30 1xBet 4,20 Superbet 4,20 BetVictor 4,20 Marathonbet 4,20 Bet365 4,10 Betano 4,05 William Hill 4,00 SBO 3,76

4,36

🔒

Pinnacle 4,69 10Bet 4,60 Betfair 4,50 Marathonbet 4,50 Superbet 4,45 Dafabet 4,40 1xBet 4,36 Bet365 4,33 Betano 4,20 Unibet 4,20 BetVictor 4,20 William Hill 4,20 SBO 3,95

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,11

🔒