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Ekstraklasa
Referee: P Gryckiewicz
3–3
Full-time
Lechia Gdansk
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pogon Szczecin Lechia Gdansk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
4,2
3,5
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 42%
53%
31%
Points per game
1,8
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
53%
53%
Both score Ø 51%
38%
63%
Average goals
2,8
2,9
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
1,1
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,6
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,19 xG 1,14
43% Possession 57%
17 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
6 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 4
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Pogon Szczecin 4. · Lechia Gdansk 14.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Lech Poznan 32 21 3 8 +36 +12.1 66
2 Rakow 32 19 8 5 +27 +10.3 65
3 Jagiellonia 33 17 9 7 +14 +4.1 60
4 Pogon Szczecin 32 17 5 10 +19 +17.3 56
5 Legia 32 15 8 9 +17 +14.6 53
6 Gornik Zabrze 32 13 7 12 +6 +5.3 46
7 Cracovia 32 12 9 11 +2 -5.6 45
8 GKS Katowice 32 13 6 13 +1 -2.3 45
9 Korona Kielce 32 11 10 11 -8 -0.6 43
10 Motor Lublin 32 12 7 13 -13 -3.9 43
11 Piast Gliwice 32 10 12 10 +0 -1.8 42
12 Radomiak Radom 33 11 8 14 -3 -0.8 41
13 Widzew Lodz 32 10 7 15 -12 -7.0 37
14 Lechia Gdansk 32 10 6 16 -14 -16.2 36
15 Zaglebie 32 10 6 16 -16 -6.8 36
16 Stal Mielec 33 7 9 17 -17 +0.4 30
17 Slask Wroclaw 33 6 11 16 -15 -0.7 29
18 Puszcza 32 6 9 17 -24 -18.2 27

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Pogon Szczecin Lechia Gdansk
6′
K. Sezonienko 0–1
R. Kapič
Linus Wahlqvist 🟨
31′
0–2 E. Olsson
own goal
32′
39′
I. Zhelizko 0–3
C. Mena
1–3 F. Ulvestad
A. Przyborek
45′
Half-time 1–3
K. Smoliński 🔁
↦ R. Kurzawa
46′
Adrian Przyborek 🟨
54′
K. Łukasiak 🔁
↦ João Gamboa
55′
65′
🟨 Bujar Pllana
Fredrik Ulvestad 🟨
68′
Luizão 🟨
68′
69′
🟨 Rifet Kapić
2–3 E. Koulouris
K. Grosicki
72′
82′
🔁 M. Głogowski
↦ K. Sezonienko
82′
🔁 T. Wójtowicz
↦ C. Mena
83′
🔁 K. Wendt
↦ B. Viunnyk
83′
🔁 A. Tsarenko
↦ M. Khlan
J. Lis 🔁
↦ A. Przyborek
88′
90′
M. Głogowski 2–4
R. Kapič
A. Klukowski 🔁
↦ K. Grosicki
96′
W. Lisowski 🔁
↦ L. Koútris
96′
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin

4-3-3
77 V. Cojocaru G
28 L. Wahlqvist D
68 D. Lončar D
6 Luizão D
32 L. Koútris D
8 F. Ulvestad M
21 João Gamboa M
7 R. Kurzawa M
10 A. Przyborek F
9 E. Koulouris F
11 K. Grosicki F
Bench (9)
61 K. Smoliński
19 K. Łukasiak
17 J. Lis
46 A. Klukowski
25 W. Lisowski
13 D. Keramitsis
51 P. Paryzek
31 K. Kamiński
35 M. Wojciechowski

Coach: R. Kolendowicz

Lechia Gdansk

4-4-1-1
1 S. Weirauch G
11 D. Piła D
44 B. Pllana D
3 E. Olsson D
23 M. Kałahur D
7 C. Mena M
8 R. Kapič M
5 I. Zhelizko M
30 M. Khlan M
9 B. Viunnyk F
79 K. Sezonienko F
Bench (8)
21 M. Głogowski
33 T. Wójtowicz
6 K. Wendt
17 A. Tsarenko
29 B. Sarnavskyi
4 A. Chindriş
94 L. Guého
16 L. D'Arrigo

Coach: J. Carver

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Gryckiewicz · 55 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.