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Bundesliga

Referee: H Osmers

Dortmund

S S S S S

3–0

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

4,7

3,5

Scored

3,2

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 33%

48%

18%

Points per game

1,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

70%

76%

Both score Ø 73%

70%

76%

Average goals

3,6

3,8

Scored

2,1

1,5

Conceded

1,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,43 xG 0,81

74% Possession 26%

19 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Dortmund 5. · Holstein Kiel 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	33	24	7	2	+63	+54.4	79
2	Leverkusen	33	19	11	3	+29	+23.2	68
3	Ein Frankfurt	33	16	9	8	+20	+15.2	57
4	Freiburg	33	16	7	10	-2	+2.5	55
5	Dortmund	33	16	6	11	+17	+18.1	54
6	Mainz	33	14	9	10	+12	-0.6	51
7	RB Leipzig	33	13	12	8	+6	-7.2	51
8	Werder Bremen	33	13	9	11	-6	+2.2	48
9	Stuttgart	33	13	8	12	+10	+15.2	47
10	M'gladbach	33	13	6	14	-1	-10.9	45
11	Augsburg	33	11	10	12	-15	-16.0	43
12	Wolfsburg	33	10	10	13	+1	-5.3	40
13	Union Berlin	33	9	11	13	-15	-10.4	38
14	St Pauli	33	8	8	17	-11	-11.0	32
15	Hoffenheim	33	7	11	15	-18	-13.6	32
16	Heidenheim	33	8	5	20	-24	-15.1	29
17	Holstein Kiel	33	6	7	20	-28	-19.2	25
18	Bochum	33	4	8	21	-38	-21.4	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	14	2	1	+37	+34.8	44
2	Ein Frankfurt	17	10	4	3	+19	+17.8	34
3	Leverkusen	17	10	4	3	+14	+16.3	34
4	Dortmund	16	10	3	3	+22	+16.2	33
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	6	2	+11	+3.2	30
6	Freiburg	16	9	3	4	+8	+2.0	30
7	Mainz	16	6	7	3	+6	+5.0	25
8	M'gladbach	16	7	3	6	+4	-0.8	24
9	Stuttgart	17	7	2	8	+8	+15.7	23
10	Augsburg	16	6	5	5	-1	+2.6	23
11	Union Berlin	17	5	7	5	-3	+1.4	22
12	Werder Bremen	17	5	6	6	-5	+4.9	21
13	Hoffenheim	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.4	17
14	Wolfsburg	17	3	7	7	-3	-0.3	16
15	St Pauli	16	3	5	8	-7	-1.0	14
16	Holstein Kiel	17	4	2	11	-17	-7.0	14
17	Bochum	17	3	4	10	-17	-3.5	13
18	Heidenheim	16	3	2	11	-17	-7.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	10	5	1	+26	+19.6	35
2	Leverkusen	16	9	7	0	+15	+6.8	34
3	Werder Bremen	16	8	3	5	-1	-2.7	27
4	Mainz	17	8	2	7	+6	-5.6	26
5	Freiburg	17	7	4	6	-10	+0.5	25
6	Wolfsburg	16	7	3	6	+4	-5.1	24
7	Stuttgart	16	6	6	4	+2	-0.5	24
8	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	5	5	+1	-2.6	23
9	Dortmund	17	6	3	8	-5	+1.9	21
10	M'gladbach	17	6	3	8	-5	-10.1	21
11	RB Leipzig	17	5	6	6	-5	-10.4	21
12	Augsburg	17	5	5	7	-14	-18.7	20
13	St Pauli	17	5	3	9	-4	-10.0	18
14	Heidenheim	17	5	3	9	-7	-7.9	18
15	Union Berlin	16	4	4	8	-12	-11.8	16
16	Hoffenheim	17	3	6	8	-11	-10.2	15
17	Holstein Kiel	16	2	5	9	-11	-12.1	11
18	Bochum	16	1	4	11	-21	-17.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.