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Ekstraklasa

Referee: S Marciniak

Lechia Gdansk

T T T S T

3–2

Full-time

Stal Mielec

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lechia Gdansk Stal Mielec

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

48%

52%

Both score Ø 61%

59%

63%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

3,21 xG 1,98

63% Possession 37%

25 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 1

2 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lechia Gdansk 18. · Stal Mielec 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	28	17	8	3	+24	+11.8	59
2	Lech Poznan	28	18	2	8	+27	+9.1	56
3	Jagiellonia	28	16	7	5	+17	+2.9	55
4	Pogon Szczecin	28	14	5	9	+16	+12.3	47
5	Legia	28	12	8	8	+13	+10.4	44
6	Cracovia	28	11	9	8	+5	-4.3	42
7	Gornik Zabrze	28	12	4	12	+4	+5.1	40
8	Motor Lublin	28	11	7	10	-7	+0.1	40
9	GKS Katowice	28	11	6	11	+1	+1.7	39
10	Piast Gliwice	28	9	10	9	-1	-3.7	37
11	Widzew Lodz	28	10	6	12	-8	-5.9	36
12	Korona Kielce	28	9	9	10	-10	+0.6	36
13	Radomiak Radom	28	10	4	14	-5	-0.7	34
14	Zaglebie	28	8	5	15	-17	-7.1	29
15	Puszcza	28	6	8	14	-15	-15.2	26
16	Slask Wroclaw	28	5	10	13	-10	-0.8	25
17	Stal Mielec	27	6	6	15	-15	+0.3	24
18	Lechia Gdansk	27	6	6	15	-19	-16.5	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	14	12	0	2	+25	+8.3	36
2	Pogon Szczecin	14	11	1	2	+18	+13.5	34
3	Jagiellonia	14	9	4	1	+16	+5.5	31
4	Legia	14	8	3	3	+14	+9.4	27
5	Rakow	14	8	3	3	+10	+6.7	27
6	GKS Katowice	14	7	4	3	+8	-1.3	25
7	Gornik Zabrze	14	7	2	5	+7	+6.4	23
8	Widzew Lodz	14	7	2	5	+0	+0.1	23
9	Motor Lublin	14	6	4	4	+3	+0.9	22
10	Korona Kielce	14	6	2	6	-2	+5.8	20
11	Radomiak Radom	14	5	4	5	+4	+3.7	19
12	Stal Mielec	14	5	4	5	-1	+5.2	19
13	Cracovia	15	4	6	5	+0	-1.3	18
14	Piast Gliwice	14	4	6	4	-2	-0.5	18
15	Puszcza	13	4	5	4	-1	-1.5	17
16	Zaglebie	14	5	2	7	-5	-3.4	17
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	3	6	5	-1	-0.7	15
18	Lechia Gdansk	13	4	2	7	-8	-8.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	14	9	5	0	+14	+5.2	32
2	Cracovia	13	7	3	3	+5	-3.1	24
3	Jagiellonia	14	7	3	4	+1	-2.6	24
4	Lech Poznan	14	6	2	6	+2	+0.7	20
5	Piast Gliwice	14	5	4	5	+1	-3.2	19
6	Motor Lublin	14	5	3	6	-10	-0.9	18
7	Legia	14	4	5	5	-1	+1.0	17
8	Gornik Zabrze	14	5	2	7	-3	-1.2	17
9	Korona Kielce	14	3	7	4	-8	-5.2	16
10	Radomiak Radom	14	5	0	9	-9	-4.4	15
11	GKS Katowice	14	4	2	8	-7	+3.0	14
12	Pogon Szczecin	14	3	4	7	-2	-1.2	13
13	Widzew Lodz	14	3	4	7	-8	-5.9	13
14	Zaglebie	14	3	3	8	-12	-3.8	12
15	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-9	-0.1	10
16	Lechia Gdansk	14	2	4	8	-11	-7.8	10
17	Puszcza	15	2	3	10	-14	-13.7	9
18	Stal Mielec	13	1	2	10	-14	-4.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.