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Championship

Referee: S Allison

Middlesbrough

S S U T U

1–2

Full-time

Bristol City

U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 29/30 matches

Win Ø 37%

41%

33%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

37%

Both score Ø 55%

59%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,66 xG 1,73

70% Possession 30%

16 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 1

5 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 12. · Bristol City 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	30	23	3	4	+41	+25.5	72
2	Ipswich	30	17	9	4	+15	+16.6	60
3	Southampton	28	17	7	4	+22	+21.1	58
4	Leeds	28	16	6	6	+24	+24.6	54
5	West Brom	29	14	7	8	+15	+5.6	49
6	Hull	29	13	6	10	+5	+6.0	45
7	Coventry	30	11	11	8	+12	+6.3	44
8	Sunderland	30	13	5	12	+8	+11.4	44
9	Norwich	28	13	5	10	+5	-5.2	44
10	Preston	30	12	6	12	-11	-12.9	42
11	Watford	30	10	11	9	+6	+3.1	41
12	Middlesbrough	29	12	5	12	+1	+14.0	41
13	Cardiff	29	12	4	13	-3	-13.4	40
14	Bristol City	30	10	8	12	-1	+0.7	38
15	Plymouth	29	9	9	11	+1	-13.2	36
16	Millwall	30	8	9	13	-8	-7.6	33
17	Swansea	30	8	9	13	-9	-10.6	33
18	Blackburn	29	10	3	16	-13	-4.3	33
19	Birmingham	30	8	8	14	-13	-5.6	32
20	Stoke	30	8	8	14	-14	-3.4	32
21	Huddersfield	30	6	13	11	-14	-11.5	31
22	QPR	30	7	7	16	-14	-9.8	28
23	Sheffield Weds	31	7	5	19	-26	-7.3	26
24	Rotherham	29	3	10	16	-29	-30.3	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	15	12	1	2	+22	+13.0	37
2	Leeds	14	10	4	0	+20	+17.6	34
3	Ipswich	15	10	4	1	+14	+15.5	34
4	West Brom	15	10	3	2	+14	+9.3	33
5	Southampton	13	9	2	2	+18	+15.2	29
6	Norwich	14	9	2	3	+9	+3.5	29
7	Plymouth	14	8	3	3	+13	-2.2	27
8	Sunderland	15	9	0	6	+7	+8.9	27
9	Coventry	15	6	8	1	+9	+6.0	26
10	Preston	15	8	2	5	-3	-5.8	26
11	Hull	15	7	4	4	+8	+7.8	25
12	Birmingham	14	5	6	3	+3	-0.3	21
13	Bristol City	15	6	3	6	+1	+1.7	21
14	Middlesbrough	15	6	3	6	+0	+9.2	21
15	Watford	15	5	5	5	+6	+8.7	20
16	Cardiff	14	6	2	6	+0	-7.6	20
17	Sheffield Weds	16	5	4	7	-3	+0.8	19
18	Huddersfield	15	4	6	5	-2	-3.2	18
19	Swansea	15	4	5	6	-2	-0.4	17
20	Blackburn	15	5	2	8	-6	+1.8	17
21	Millwall	15	4	4	7	-7	-1.8	16
22	Stoke	15	4	4	7	-9	+0.8	16
23	Rotherham	15	3	6	6	-4	-8.5	15
24	QPR	15	3	4	8	-7	-2.3	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	15	11	2	2	+19	+12.5	35
2	Southampton	15	8	5	2	+4	+5.9	29
3	Ipswich	15	7	5	3	+1	+1.0	26
4	Watford	15	5	6	4	+0	-5.6	21
5	Leeds	14	6	2	6	+4	+7.0	20
6	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	+1	+4.8	20
7	Hull	14	6	2	6	-3	-1.9	20
8	Cardiff	15	6	2	7	-3	-5.8	20
9	Coventry	15	5	3	7	+3	+0.4	18
10	Sunderland	15	4	5	6	+1	+2.6	17
11	Millwall	15	4	5	6	-1	-5.8	17
12	Bristol City	15	4	5	6	-2	-1.0	17
13	West Brom	14	4	4	6	+1	-3.7	16
14	Stoke	15	4	4	7	-5	-4.2	16
15	Blackburn	14	5	1	8	-7	-6.1	16
16	Swansea	15	4	4	7	-7	-10.2	16
17	Preston	15	4	4	7	-8	-7.1	16
18	Norwich	14	4	3	7	-4	-8.7	15
19	QPR	15	4	3	8	-7	-7.5	15
20	Huddersfield	15	2	7	6	-12	-8.3	13
21	Birmingham	16	3	2	11	-16	-5.3	11
22	Plymouth	15	1	6	8	-12	-11.0	9
23	Sheffield Weds	15	2	1	12	-23	-8.1	7
24	Rotherham	14	0	4	10	-25	-21.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.