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Championship
Referee: D Webb
Middlesbrough
S S S T S
1–3
Full-time
Coventry
U U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Coventry
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,5
Scored
1,5
1,8
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 38%
44%
32%
Points per game
1,4
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
56%
40%
Both score Ø 52%
52%
52%
Average goals
2,9
2,5
Scored
1,5
1,4
Conceded
1,4
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,54 xG 2,22
46% Possession 54%
19 Shots 17
7 Shots on target 8
7 Blocked shots 6
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
12 Corners 9
3 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Middlesbrough 9. · Coventry 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leicester 25 20 2 3 +33 +22.3 62
2 Ipswich 25 16 6 3 +15 +11.2 54
3 Southampton 24 14 6 4 +14 +16.0 48
4 Leeds 24 12 6 6 +16 +18.5 42
5 West Brom 24 12 6 6 +14 +3.9 42
6 Sunderland 26 12 4 10 +8 +12.8 40
7 Hull 25 11 6 8 +6 +7.3 39
8 Bristol City 25 10 6 9 +3 +2.7 36
9 Middlesbrough 25 11 3 11 +1 +12.6 36
10 Watford 25 9 8 8 +6 +4.2 35
11 Preston 26 10 5 11 -13 -10.3 35
12 Coventry 25 8 10 7 +8 +5.6 34
13 Norwich 24 10 4 10 +1 -4.3 34
14 Cardiff 25 10 4 11 +0 -8.8 34
15 Blackburn 25 10 1 14 -9 -3.7 31
16 Millwall 25 7 8 10 -4 -5.6 29
17 Swansea 25 7 8 10 -5 -8.7 29
18 Plymouth 25 7 7 11 -2 -12.8 28
19 Stoke 25 7 7 11 -7 -2.3 28
20 Birmingham 25 7 7 11 -8 -4.2 28
21 Huddersfield 25 5 10 10 -15 -13.5 25
22 QPR 25 5 6 14 -15 -10.7 21
23 Sheffield Weds 25 5 4 16 -21 -4.8 19
24 Rotherham 25 3 8 14 -26 -27.3 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Middlesbrough Coventry
1–0 J. Coburn
I. Jones
31′
34′
T. Sakamoto 1–1
Half-time 1–2
58′
H. Wright 1–2
E. Simms
65′
🟨 Josh Eccles
Sam Greenwood 🟨
67′
69′
T. Sakamoto 1–3
J. Bidwell
70′
🔁 M. Godden
↦ E. Simms
70′
🔁 J. Latibeaudiere
↦ J. Eccles
A. Bangura 🔁
↦ L. Engel
74′
A. Gilbert 🔁
↦ S. Greenwood
81′
82′
🟨 Haji Wright
82′
🔁 K. Palmer
↦ H. Wright
C. Kavanagh 🔁
↦ R. van den Berg
85′
88′
🔁 J. Dasilva
↦ C. OHare
Morgan Rogers 🟨
91′
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-2-3-1
23 T. Glover G
3 R. van den Berg D
6 D. Fry D
5 M. Clarke D
27 L. Engel D
16 J. Howson M
4 D. Barlaser M
11 I. Jones M
10 M. Rogers M
29 S. Greenwood M
19 J. Coburn F
Bench (9)
24 A. Bangura
14 A. Gilbert
48 C. Kavanagh
38 D. Nkrumah
57 B. Bilongo
49 L. McCabe
22 H. Coulson
52 A. Bridge
32 J. Jones

Coach: M. Carrick

Coventry

4-4-1-1
40 B. Collins G
27 M. van Ewijk D
4 B. Thomas D
2 L. Binks D
21 J. Bidwell D
7 T. Sakamoto M
14 B. Sheaf M
28 J. Eccles M
11 H. Wright M
10 C. O'Hare F
9 E. Simms F
Bench (9)
24 M. Godden
22 J. Latibeaudiere
45 K. Palmer
3 J. Dasilva
30 Fábio Tavares
5 K. McFadzean
13 B. Wilson
26 Y. Ayari
8 J. Allen

Coach: M. Robins

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,99
U
3,70
B ✓
3,55
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,76
U2,5
2,06
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Webb · 199 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.