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Championship

Referee: G Scott

Plymouth

T S T U S

3–3

Full-time

Birmingham

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Plymouth Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 32%

32%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

68%

45%

Both score Ø 57%

59%

55%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,61 xG 1,79

67% Possession 33%

15 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 3

2 Offside 5

7 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Plymouth 17. · Birmingham 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	22	18	1	3	+28	+18.3	55
2	Ipswich	23	16	4	3	+15	+10.4	52
3	Leeds	22	12	6	4	+18	+17.9	42
4	Southampton	21	11	6	4	+7	+10.6	39
5	West Brom	21	10	6	5	+13	+3.7	36
6	Hull	23	10	6	7	+6	+6.7	36
7	Sunderland	22	10	3	9	+8	+13.1	33
8	Bristol City	23	9	5	9	+0	+1.5	32
9	Preston	23	9	5	9	-11	-9.4	32
10	Watford	22	8	7	7	+8	+2.7	31
11	Norwich	21	9	4	8	+1	-3.3	31
12	Blackburn	22	10	1	11	-4	-0.9	31
13	Cardiff	22	9	3	10	+1	-6.8	30
14	Middlesbrough	22	9	3	10	+0	+8.9	30
15	Swansea	23	7	7	9	+0	-5.7	28
16	Coventry	22	6	9	7	+3	+6.3	27
17	Plymouth	22	7	5	10	-1	-10.2	26
18	Birmingham	22	7	5	10	-6	-3.9	26
19	Stoke	22	6	5	11	-9	-1.9	23
20	Millwall	22	5	7	10	-7	-7.3	22
21	Huddersfield	22	4	10	8	-15	-11.4	22
22	QPR	22	5	5	12	-12	-8.6	20
23	Sheffield Weds	22	4	4	14	-19	-6.1	16
24	Rotherham	22	2	7	13	-24	-24.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	12	8	4	0	+16	+15.4	28
2	Ipswich	11	9	1	1	+13	+11.6	28
3	Leicester	11	9	0	2	+14	+9.0	27
4	Plymouth	11	7	1	3	+11	-2.8	22
5	West Brom	11	6	3	2	+8	+5.1	21
6	Sunderland	11	7	0	4	+7	+7.1	21
7	Southampton	10	6	2	2	+8	+9.2	20
8	Bristol City	12	6	2	4	+3	+2.3	20
9	Watford	12	5	4	3	+10	+7.8	19
10	Hull	11	5	4	2	+8	+7.6	19
11	Birmingham	11	5	4	2	+5	-0.7	19
12	Cardiff	11	6	1	4	+5	-2.4	19
13	Norwich	10	6	1	3	+4	+2.7	19
14	Coventry	11	4	6	1	+5	+5.4	18
15	Preston	11	5	2	4	-6	-4.2	17
16	Middlesbrough	11	5	1	5	+1	+7.2	16
17	Blackburn	11	5	0	6	-4	+1.5	15
18	Swansea	12	3	5	4	+0	+0.6	14
19	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-3	+1.2	14
20	Sheffield Weds	11	3	3	5	-5	+0.1	12
21	Rotherham	11	2	5	4	-2	-7.7	11
22	Huddersfield	11	2	5	4	-8	-4.4	11
23	QPR	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.0	9
24	Millwall	11	2	3	6	-8	-3.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	11	9	1	1	+14	+9.3	28
2	Ipswich	12	7	3	2	+2	-1.2	24
3	Southampton	11	5	4	2	-1	+1.4	19
4	Hull	12	5	2	5	-2	-0.9	17
5	Blackburn	11	5	1	5	+0	-2.4	16
6	West Brom	10	4	3	3	+5	-1.4	15
7	Preston	12	4	3	5	-5	-5.2	15
8	Leeds	10	4	2	4	+2	+2.5	14
9	Swansea	11	4	2	5	+0	-6.3	14
10	Middlesbrough	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.8	14
11	Millwall	11	3	4	4	+1	-3.9	13
12	Sunderland	11	3	3	5	+1	+5.9	12
13	Watford	10	3	3	4	-2	-5.1	12
14	Norwich	11	3	3	5	-3	-6.0	12
15	Bristol City	11	3	3	5	-3	-0.8	12
16	Cardiff	11	3	2	6	-4	-4.4	11
17	QPR	12	3	2	7	-6	-6.6	11
18	Huddersfield	11	2	5	4	-7	-7.0	11
19	Coventry	11	2	3	6	-2	+0.8	9
20	Stoke	11	2	3	6	-6	-3.2	9
21	Birmingham	11	2	1	8	-11	-3.2	7
22	Plymouth	11	0	4	7	-12	-7.4	4
23	Sheffield Weds	11	1	1	9	-14	-6.2	4
24	Rotherham	11	0	2	9	-22	-16.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.