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Premier League

Referee: D England

Luton

T S T T T

1–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 33%

13%

53%

Points per game

0,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

69%

65%

Both score Ø 58%

75%

41%

Average goals

3,1

3,4

Scored

1,1

2,1

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,49 xG 1,50

35% Possession 65%

16 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 18. · Newcastle 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	12	3	2	+20	+19.0	39
2	Aston Villa	18	12	3	3	+16	+8.2	39
3	Liverpool	17	11	5	1	+21	+14.3	38
4	Man City	17	10	4	3	+20	+15.9	34
5	Tottenham	17	10	3	4	+12	+0.7	33
6	West Ham	18	9	3	6	+1	-4.8	30
7	Newcastle	17	9	2	6	+15	+13.3	29
8	Man United	18	9	1	8	-5	-3.2	28
9	Brighton	18	7	6	5	+3	+2.6	27
10	Everton	17	8	2	7	+2	+5.1	26
11	Chelsea	17	6	4	7	+2	+9.4	22
12	Fulham	17	6	3	8	-3	-9.4	21
13	Brentford	17	5	4	8	+0	+8.0	19
14	Wolves	17	5	4	8	-8	-7.1	19
15	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-9	-5.7	19
16	Crystal Palace	18	4	6	8	-8	-2.2	18
17	Nott'm Forest	17	3	5	9	-13	-7.3	14
18	Luton	16	2	3	11	-15	-19.0	9
19	Sheffield United	18	2	3	13	-31	-23.9	9
20	Burnley	17	2	2	13	-20	-13.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	9	8	1	0	+20	+10.2	25
2	Newcastle	9	8	0	1	+18	+15.0	24
3	Arsenal	9	7	2	0	+14	+12.3	23
4	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+16	+13.1	22
5	Man City	8	5	3	0	+13	+5.6	18
6	West Ham	9	5	2	2	+7	-2.3	17
7	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+6	+5.0	16
8	Fulham	8	5	0	3	+8	+2.6	15
9	Tottenham	8	5	0	3	+4	+1.6	15
10	Man United	9	5	0	4	-4	+2.7	15
11	Brentford	9	3	3	3	+2	+4.8	12
12	Chelsea	9	3	3	3	+2	+7.7	12
13	Wolves	8	3	3	2	-2	-2.3	12
14	Everton	9	3	1	5	+1	+7.1	10
15	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-1	+0.5	9
16	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.8	9
17	Sheffield United	9	2	1	6	-13	-11.3	7
18	Crystal Palace	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.7	6
19	Luton	8	1	2	5	-4	-4.8	5
20	Burnley	9	1	0	8	-12	-4.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+8	-0.9	18
2	Man City	9	5	1	3	+7	+10.4	16
3	Arsenal	8	5	1	2	+6	+6.7	16
4	Liverpool	9	4	4	1	+5	+1.3	16
5	Everton	8	5	1	2	+1	-2.0	16
6	Aston Villa	9	4	2	3	-4	-2.0	14
7	Man United	9	4	1	4	-1	-5.9	13
8	West Ham	9	4	1	4	-6	-2.5	13
9	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	-1.5	12
10	Brighton	9	3	2	4	-3	-2.4	11
11	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	+0	+1.7	10
12	Bournemouth	8	3	1	4	-5	-2.9	10
13	Brentford	8	2	1	5	-2	+3.2	7
14	Wolves	9	2	1	6	-6	-4.8	7
15	Fulham	9	1	3	5	-11	-12.0	6
16	Newcastle	8	1	2	5	-3	-1.6	5
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-8	-9.1	5
18	Nott'm Forest	9	1	2	6	-12	-7.9	5
19	Luton	8	1	1	6	-11	-14.3	4
20	Sheffield United	9	0	2	7	-18	-12.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.