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Allsvenskan

Referee: Granit Maqedonci

Varnamo

S T T U U

3–2

Full-time

Degerfors

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varnamo Degerfors

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

0,2

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 13%

21%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

53%

63%

Both score Ø 53%

63%

42%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,8

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,65 xG 1,56

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 10

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Varnamo 16. · Degerfors 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	20	14	5	1	+23	+1.7	47
2	Hammarby	20	13	3	4	+19	+12.6	42
3	Malmo FF	20	10	6	4	+16	+12.4	36
4	Elfsborg	20	11	3	6	+9	+2.4	36
5	GAIS	20	9	8	3	+14	+10.4	35
6	AIK	20	9	7	4	+7	+5.8	34
7	Goteborg	20	11	1	8	+3	+0.1	34
8	Djurgarden	20	7	7	6	+3	+4.9	28
9	Brommapojkarna	20	7	2	11	-2	-1.3	23
10	Hacken	20	6	5	9	-9	+3.1	23
11	Norrkoping	20	6	4	10	-7	-8.9	22
12	Sirius	20	5	5	10	-5	-2.2	20
13	Oster	20	4	6	10	-9	-11.5	18
14	Halmstad	20	5	3	12	-25	-13.9	18
15	Degerfors	19	4	3	12	-21	-3.7	15
16	Varnamo	19	1	6	12	-16	-12.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	11	8	1	2	+12	+10.6	25
2	Mjallby	10	7	3	0	+12	+4.1	24
3	Elfsborg	10	6	2	2	+7	+2.8	20
4	AIK	9	5	4	0	+10	+4.6	19
5	Malmo FF	9	5	2	2	+8	+8.5	17
6	Goteborg	10	5	1	4	+4	+1.9	16
7	GAIS	9	4	3	2	+5	+6.9	15
8	Djurgarden	10	3	5	2	+3	+5.2	14
9	Norrkoping	11	4	1	6	-3	-0.0	13
10	Halmstad	11	4	1	6	-11	-4.7	13
11	Hacken	11	3	2	6	-7	+4.9	11
12	Brommapojkarna	10	3	0	7	-5	-0.4	9
13	Sirius	9	2	2	5	-3	+1.0	8
14	Varnamo	10	1	4	5	-5	-5.3	7
15	Oster	9	1	3	5	-6	-4.3	6
16	Degerfors	10	1	3	6	-12	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	10	7	2	1	+11	-2.3	23
2	GAIS	11	5	5	1	+9	+3.5	20
3	Malmo FF	11	5	4	2	+8	+3.9	19
4	Goteborg	10	6	0	4	-1	-1.8	18
5	Hammarby	9	5	2	2	+7	+2.0	17
6	Elfsborg	10	5	1	4	+2	-0.4	16
7	AIK	11	4	3	4	-3	+1.2	15
8	Brommapojkarna	10	4	2	4	+3	-0.9	14
9	Djurgarden	10	4	2	4	+0	-0.3	14
10	Sirius	11	3	3	5	-2	-3.1	12
11	Hacken	9	3	3	3	-2	-1.8	12
12	Oster	11	3	3	5	-3	-7.2	12
13	Norrkoping	9	2	3	4	-4	-8.9	9
14	Degerfors	9	3	0	6	-9	-3.3	9
15	Halmstad	9	1	2	6	-14	-9.2	5
16	Varnamo	9	0	2	7	-11	-6.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.