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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Stoke

U T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Swansea

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 30%

30%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 53%

35%

70%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,91 xG 0,61

43% Possession 57%

16 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

5 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 20. · Swansea 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	20	16	1	3	+26	+16.1	49
2	Ipswich	20	15	3	2	+18	+10.3	48
3	Leeds	19	11	5	3	+15	+15.8	38
4	Southampton	19	10	5	4	+3	+7.3	35
5	West Brom	19	9	5	5	+11	+2.4	32
6	Sunderland	20	9	3	8	+8	+12.7	30
7	Cardiff	20	9	3	8	+5	-4.9	30
8	Hull	20	8	6	6	+3	+5.2	30
9	Preston	20	8	5	7	-8	-8.3	29
10	Watford	20	7	7	6	+5	+2.4	28
11	Blackburn	20	9	1	10	-1	+1.8	28
12	Middlesbrough	20	8	3	9	+0	+9.3	27
13	Norwich	19	8	3	8	-1	-2.2	27
14	Bristol City	20	7	5	8	-1	+1.8	26
15	Coventry	20	6	7	7	+3	+7.4	25
16	Swansea	20	6	6	8	+0	-4.1	24
17	Birmingham	20	6	5	9	-6	-2.9	23
18	Plymouth	20	6	4	10	-2	-10.7	22
19	Millwall	20	5	6	9	-6	-7.2	21
20	Stoke	20	6	3	11	-9	-3.4	21
21	Huddersfield	20	4	9	7	-13	-11.2	21
22	QPR	20	5	4	11	-11	-8.8	19
23	Sheffield Weds	20	3	4	13	-18	-6.4	13
24	Rotherham	20	2	7	11	-21	-22.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	10	9	0	1	+13	+10.3	27
2	Leicester	10	8	0	2	+13	+8.7	24
3	Leeds	10	7	3	0	+12	+12.8	24
4	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.2	20
5	Watford	11	5	4	2	+11	+8.4	19
6	Plymouth	10	6	1	3	+10	-3.9	19
7	Cardiff	10	6	1	3	+6	-1.7	19
8	Birmingham	10	5	4	1	+6	+1.1	19
9	Sunderland	10	6	0	4	+6	+6.6	18
10	Coventry	10	4	5	1	+5	+5.7	17
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.2	17
12	Preston	10	5	2	3	-2	-3.4	17
13	Hull	10	4	4	2	+5	+6.4	16
14	Norwich	9	5	1	3	+2	+2.5	16
15	Middlesbrough	10	5	1	4	+2	+7.2	16
16	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+1	+2.3	14
17	Stoke	10	4	1	5	-3	-1.1	13
18	Blackburn	10	4	0	6	-5	+1.2	12
19	Rotherham	10	2	5	3	+0	-7.3	11
20	Swansea	10	2	5	3	+0	-0.1	11
21	Huddersfield	10	2	5	3	-6	-4.4	11
22	Sheffield Weds	10	2	3	5	-6	-0.4	9
23	QPR	9	2	2	5	-6	-2.6	8
24	Millwall	10	2	2	6	-8	-3.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	10	8	1	1	+13	+7.4	25
2	Ipswich	10	6	3	1	+5	+0.0	21
3	Southampton	10	5	3	2	-1	+1.1	18
4	Blackburn	10	5	1	4	+4	+0.6	16
5	Leeds	9	4	2	3	+3	+3.1	14
6	Hull	10	4	2	4	-2	-1.2	14
7	Millwall	10	3	4	3	+2	-3.6	13
8	Swansea	10	4	1	5	+0	-4.0	13
9	West Brom	9	3	3	3	+3	-1.8	12
10	Sunderland	10	3	3	4	+2	+6.1	12
11	Bristol City	10	3	3	4	-2	-0.5	12
12	Preston	10	3	3	4	-6	-4.9	12
13	Cardiff	10	3	2	5	-1	-3.2	11
14	Middlesbrough	10	3	2	5	-2	+2.1	11
15	Norwich	10	3	2	5	-3	-4.7	11
16	QPR	11	3	2	6	-5	-6.2	11
17	Huddersfield	10	2	4	4	-7	-6.8	10
18	Watford	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.0	9
19	Coventry	10	2	2	6	-2	+1.7	8
20	Stoke	10	2	2	6	-6	-2.3	8
21	Birmingham	10	1	1	8	-12	-4.0	4
22	Sheffield Weds	10	1	1	8	-12	-6.0	4
23	Plymouth	10	0	3	7	-12	-6.8	3
24	Rotherham	10	0	2	8	-21	-15.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.