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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Derby

U U T T U

3–2

Full-time

Bournemouth

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,8

This season — Championship · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

33%

56%

Both score Ø 48%

56%

39%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 4

4 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 21. · Bournemouth 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	19	14	2	3	+34	44
2	Bournemouth	18	12	5	1	+21	41
3	West Brom	19	10	5	4	+12	35
4	Coventry	19	10	4	5	+7	34
5	Stoke	19	10	4	5	+7	34
6	QPR	19	8	5	6	+5	29
7	Huddersfield	17	8	4	5	+4	28
8	Blackburn	18	7	6	5	+2	27
9	Swansea	19	7	6	6	+1	27
10	Luton	18	7	5	6	+5	26
11	Middlesbrough	19	7	5	7	+2	26
12	Millwall	18	6	8	4	+0	26
13	Blackpool	18	7	5	6	-1	26
14	Reading	19	8	2	9	-4	26
15	Preston	19	6	6	7	-4	24
16	Bristol City	19	6	5	8	-7	23
17	Sheffield United	18	6	4	8	+0	22
18	Birmingham	19	6	4	9	-6	22
19	Nott'm Forest	16	5	4	7	-1	19
20	Cardiff	19	5	4	10	-13	19
21	Derby	18	3	9	6	-4	18
22	Hull	19	4	3	12	-10	15
23	Peterboro	18	4	3	11	-17	15
24	Peterborough	18	4	3	11	-17	15
25	Barnsley	18	2	5	11	-16	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	10	8	1	1	+14	25
2	Stoke	10	7	2	1	+9	23
3	Fulham	9	7	1	1	+17	22
4	West Brom	9	6	3	0	+11	21
5	Bournemouth	9	6	2	1	+12	20
6	Swansea	10	5	4	1	+9	19
7	Huddersfield	8	6	1	1	+6	19
8	QPR	9	5	3	1	+7	18
9	Preston	10	5	3	2	+3	18
10	Luton	9	5	2	2	+8	17
11	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	+5	17
12	Blackburn	9	5	2	2	+3	17
13	Reading	10	5	2	3	+3	17
14	Millwall	9	4	3	2	+1	15
15	Sheffield United	10	4	2	4	+6	14
16	Blackpool	9	4	1	4	-2	13
17	Peterboro	9	3	3	3	+2	12
18	Peterborough	9	3	3	3	+2	12
19	Derby	8	2	5	1	+1	11
20	Birmingham	9	3	2	4	-3	11
21	Bristol City	9	1	5	3	-3	8
22	Hull	10	2	2	6	-5	8
23	Barnsley	9	2	2	5	-5	8
24	Nott'm Forest	8	2	1	5	-5	7
25	Cardiff	9	2	1	6	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	10	7	1	2	+17	22
2	Bournemouth	9	6	3	0	+9	21
3	Bristol City	10	5	0	5	-4	15
4	West Brom	10	4	2	4	+1	14
5	Blackpool	9	3	4	2	+1	13
6	Nott'm Forest	8	3	3	2	+4	12
7	Cardiff	10	3	3	4	-6	12
8	Millwall	9	2	5	2	-1	11
9	QPR	10	3	2	5	-2	11
10	Stoke	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Birmingham	10	3	2	5	-3	11
12	Blackburn	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	Huddersfield	9	2	3	4	-2	9
14	Luton	9	2	3	4	-3	9
15	Middlesbrough	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Reading	9	3	0	6	-7	9
17	Coventry	9	2	3	4	-7	9
18	Sheffield United	8	2	2	4	-6	8
19	Swansea	9	2	2	5	-8	8
20	Derby	10	1	4	5	-5	7
21	Hull	9	2	1	6	-5	7
22	Preston	9	1	3	5	-7	6
23	Barnsley	9	0	3	6	-11	3
24	Peterboro	9	1	0	8	-19	3
25	Peterborough	9	1	0	8	-19	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.