Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Darmstadt
Nurnberg
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Hamburg
|
20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | +21 | 41 |
| 2 |
Bochum
|
19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | +15 | 36 |
| 3 |
Holstein Kiel
|
19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | +13 | 36 |
| 4 |
Greuther Furth
|
19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 35 |
| 5 |
Karlsruhe
|
19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | +6 | 32 |
| 6 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf
|
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 7 |
Hannover
|
19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | +8 | 29 |
| 8 |
Erzgebirge Aue
|
20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 |
Paderborn
|
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | +1 | 26 |
| 10 |
Heidenheim
|
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | +0 | 26 |
| 11 |
Regensburg
|
19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 |
Darmstadt
|
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 13 |
St Pauli
|
20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 14 |
Osnabruck
|
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -9 | 22 |
| 15 |
Nurnberg
|
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -6 | 20 |
| 16 |
Sandhausen
|
20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -17 | 18 |
| 17 |
Braunschweig
|
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -21 | 17 |
| 18 |
Wurzburger Kickers
|
19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | -18 | 12 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Regensburg
Darmstadt
Darmstadt
Sandhausen
Darmstadt
Holstein Kiel
Heidenheim
Darmstadt
Darmstadt
Hannover
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.