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2. Bundesliga

Paderborn

T T U S T

2–1

Full-time

Erzgebirge Aue

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Erzgebirge Aue

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 40%

36%

43%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 43%

36%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,5

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

16 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 3

8 Corners 2

12 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paderborn 13. · Erzgebirge Aue 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hamburg	15	9	3	3	+12	30
2	Holstein Kiel	15	8	5	2	+10	29
3	Greuther Furth	15	8	3	4	+10	27
4	Bochum	14	8	2	4	+11	26
5	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	8	2	4	+2	26
6	Erzgebirge Aue	14	6	4	4	+7	22
7	Karlsruhe	15	7	1	7	+3	22
8	Osnabruck	15	6	4	5	-1	22
9	Heidenheim	15	6	4	5	-1	22
10	Hannover	14	6	2	6	+5	20
11	Nurnberg	15	5	5	5	+2	20
12	Darmstadt	14	5	3	6	+1	18
13	Paderborn	14	5	3	6	+1	18
14	Regensburg	14	4	5	5	-2	17
15	Sandhausen	15	4	2	9	-15	14
16	Braunschweig	14	3	3	8	-18	12
17	St Pauli	15	1	7	7	-10	10
18	Wurzburger Kickers	15	2	2	11	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	6	1	0	+8	19
2	Heidenheim	8	5	3	0	+9	18
3	Bochum	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Hannover	7	5	1	1	+11	16
5	Hamburg	8	5	1	2	+9	16
6	Erzgebirge Aue	7	4	2	1	+7	14
7	Holstein Kiel	8	4	2	2	+2	14
8	Nurnberg	8	3	3	2	+1	12
9	Regensburg	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Sandhausen	8	3	2	3	-2	11
11	Paderborn	6	3	1	2	+2	10
12	Greuther Furth	7	3	1	3	+0	10
13	Braunschweig	7	3	1	3	-4	10
14	Karlsruhe	7	3	0	4	+1	9
15	Darmstadt	6	2	2	2	+1	8
16	Osnabruck	7	2	1	4	-4	7
17	St Pauli	7	1	3	3	-5	6
18	Wurzburger Kickers	8	1	2	5	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Greuther Furth	8	5	2	1	+10	17
2	Holstein Kiel	7	4	3	0	+8	15
3	Osnabruck	8	4	3	1	+3	15
4	Hamburg	7	4	2	1	+3	14
5	Karlsruhe	8	4	1	3	+2	13
6	Darmstadt	8	3	1	4	+0	10
7	Bochum	6	3	0	3	-1	9
8	Nurnberg	7	2	2	3	+1	8
9	Erzgebirge Aue	7	2	2	3	+0	8
10	Paderborn	8	2	2	4	-1	8
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	2	1	4	-6	7
12	Regensburg	7	1	3	3	-4	6
13	St Pauli	8	0	4	4	-5	4
14	Hannover	7	1	1	5	-6	4
15	Heidenheim	7	1	1	5	-10	4
16	Wurzburger Kickers	7	1	0	6	-9	3
17	Sandhausen	7	1	0	6	-13	3
18	Braunschweig	7	0	2	5	-14	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.