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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Bristol City

T T U U T

2–3

Full-time

Luton

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,2

This season — Championship · 43/42 matches

Win Ø 37%

35%

38%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

42%

29%

Both score Ø 37%

42%

31%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 18. · Luton 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	44	28	9	7	+36	93
2	Watford	44	26	10	8	+33	88
3	Bournemouth	42	22	11	9	+32	77
4	Barnsley	42	23	8	11	+14	77
5	Brentford	40	19	14	7	+30	71
6	Swansea	41	20	10	11	+14	70
7	Reading	44	19	12	13	+11	69
8	Cardiff	44	17	13	14	+13	64
9	Middlesbrough	44	18	9	17	+5	63
10	QPR	44	17	11	16	-2	62
11	Millwall	44	14	17	13	-3	59
12	Stoke	44	14	15	15	-2	57
13	Luton	42	16	9	17	-10	57
14	Preston	44	16	7	21	-10	55
15	Blackburn	44	14	11	19	+8	53
16	Birmingham	44	13	13	18	-17	52
17	Nott'm Forest	44	12	15	17	-7	51
18	Bristol City	43	15	6	22	-16	51
19	Coventry	44	13	12	19	-17	51
20	Huddersfield	44	12	11	21	-21	47
21	Sheffield Weds	44	12	9	23	-21	45
22	Derby	44	11	10	23	-21	43
23	Rotherham	42	11	6	25	-15	39
24	Wycombe	44	9	10	25	-34	37

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	22	18	2	2	+30	56
2	Norwich	22	13	6	3	+21	45
3	Bournemouth	21	13	3	5	+19	42
4	Barnsley	21	12	5	4	+10	41
5	Reading	22	12	3	7	+10	39
6	Middlesbrough	22	11	4	7	+8	37
7	Swansea	21	10	6	5	+8	36
8	Brentford	19	9	8	2	+15	35
9	QPR	22	10	4	8	+3	34
10	Coventry	22	9	7	6	+3	34
11	Stoke	22	9	5	8	+3	32
12	Blackburn	22	8	7	7	+6	31
13	Sheffield Weds	22	8	7	7	+5	31
14	Luton	21	8	7	6	+2	31
15	Huddersfield	22	8	6	8	+5	30
16	Cardiff	22	8	5	9	+11	29
17	Millwall	22	6	10	6	-3	28
18	Nott'm Forest	22	6	8	8	-2	26
19	Derby	22	6	6	10	-6	24
20	Bristol City	21	7	3	11	-9	24
21	Preston	22	6	5	11	-5	23
22	Wycombe	22	6	5	11	-12	23
23	Birmingham	22	6	4	12	-15	22
24	Rotherham	22	5	3	14	-9	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	22	15	3	4	+15	48
2	Brentford	21	10	6	5	+15	36
3	Barnsley	21	11	3	7	+4	36
4	Bournemouth	21	9	8	4	+13	35
5	Cardiff	22	9	8	5	+2	35
6	Swansea	20	10	4	6	+6	34
7	Watford	22	8	8	6	+3	32
8	Preston	22	10	2	10	-5	32
9	Millwall	22	8	7	7	+0	31
10	Reading	22	7	9	6	+1	30
11	Birmingham	22	7	9	6	-2	30
12	QPR	22	7	7	8	-5	28
13	Bristol City	22	8	3	11	-7	27
14	Middlesbrough	22	7	5	10	-3	26
15	Luton	21	8	2	11	-12	26
16	Stoke	22	5	10	7	-5	25
17	Nott'm Forest	22	6	7	9	-5	25
18	Blackburn	22	6	4	12	+2	22
19	Rotherham	20	6	3	11	-6	21
20	Derby	22	5	4	13	-15	19
21	Coventry	22	4	5	13	-20	17
22	Huddersfield	22	4	5	13	-26	17
23	Wycombe	22	3	5	14	-22	14
24	Sheffield Weds	22	4	2	16	-26	14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.