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Premier League
Referee: M Dean
Man United
S U U S S
2–1
Full-time
Brighton
T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Brighton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,5
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
0,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,2
This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 40%
55%
24%
Points per game
2,0
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
55%
48%
Both score Ø 55%
55%
55%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,9
1,1
Conceded
1,1
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%
15 Shots 5
7 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 6
0 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Man United 2. · Brighton 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 31 23 5 3 +45 74
2 Man United 29 16 9 4 +24 57
3 Leicester 30 17 5 8 +19 56
4 Chelsea 30 14 9 7 +16 51
5 Tottenham 30 14 7 9 +19 49
6 Liverpool 30 14 7 9 +15 49
7 West Ham 29 14 7 8 +10 49
8 Everton 28 14 4 10 +3 46
9 Aston Villa 29 13 5 11 +11 44
10 Arsenal 30 12 6 12 +5 42
11 Leeds 30 13 3 14 -1 42
12 Crystal Palace 29 10 7 12 -16 37
13 Southampton 30 10 6 14 -14 36
14 Wolves 29 9 8 12 -10 35
15 Burnley 30 8 9 13 -16 33
16 Brighton 29 7 11 11 -4 32
17 Newcastle 30 7 8 15 -20 29
18 Fulham 31 5 11 15 -17 26
19 West Brom 30 4 9 17 -34 21
20 Sheffield United 30 4 2 24 -35 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Man United Brighton
13′
D. Welbeck 0–1
42′
🟨 Pascal Groß
Half-time 1–1
1–1 M. Rashford
Bruno Fernandes
62′
Edinson Cavani 🟨
63′
63′
🔁 A. Mac Allister
↦ L. Trossard
66′
🟨 Ben White
D. James 🔁
↦ M. Rashford
72′
D. van de Beek 🔁
↦ E. Cavani
82′
2–1 M. Greenwood
P. Pogba
83′
S. McTominay 🔁
↦ P. Pogba
84′
87′
🔁 A. Zeqiri
↦ A. Lallana
87′
🔁 A. Jahanbakhsh
↦ J. Moder
Mason Greenwood 🟨
89′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Man United

4-2-3-1
26 D. Henderson G
2 V. Lindelöf D
5 H. Maguire D
23 L. Shaw D
29 A. Wan-Bissaka D
6 P. Pogba M
17 Fred M
18 Bruno Fernandes M
7 E. Cavani F
10 M. Rashford M
11 M. Greenwood M
Bench (9)
21 D. James
34 D. van de Beek
39 S. McTominay
31 N. Matić
33 B. Williams
1 David de Gea
38 A. Tuanzebe
19 A. Diallo
13 L. Grant

Coach: O. Solskjær

Brighton

3-4-1-2
26 Robert Sánchez G
34 J. Veltman D
5 L. Dunk D
3 B. White D
14 A. Lallana M
13 P. Groß M
15 J. Moder M
8 Y. Bissouma M
18 D. Welbeck F
11 L. Trossard F
9 N. Maupay F
Bench (9)
10 A. Mac Allister
29 A. Zeqiri
16 A. Jahanbakhsh
24 D. Pröpper
19 J. Izquierdo
23 J. Steele
25 M. Caicedo
17 S. Alzate
6 M. Karbownik

Coach: G. Potter

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,64
U
3,97
B
5,39
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,92
U2,5
1,90
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Dean · 52 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.