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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Arsenal

T U T T T

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,7

Scored

0,3

2,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 46%

33%

58%

Points per game

1,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,1

3,4

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

35% Possession 65%

9 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 15. · Southampton 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	12	7	4	1	+14	25
2	Liverpool	12	7	4	1	+9	25
3	Leicester	12	8	0	4	+9	24
4	Southampton	12	7	2	3	+7	23
5	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+12	22
6	Man City	12	5	5	2	+6	20
7	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+5	20
8	Everton	12	6	2	4	+3	20
9	Man United	11	6	2	3	+2	20
10	Wolves	13	6	2	5	-4	20
11	Aston Villa	10	6	0	4	+8	18
12	Crystal Palace	12	5	2	5	+1	17
13	Newcastle	11	5	2	4	-2	17
14	Leeds	12	4	2	6	-5	14
15	Arsenal	12	4	1	7	-5	13
16	Brighton	12	2	4	6	-6	10
17	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-12	9
18	Fulham	12	2	2	8	-10	8
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-16	7
20	Sheffield United	12	0	1	11	-16	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Southampton	6	4	0	2	+5	12
3	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+7	11
4	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
5	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
7	Everton	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	10
9	Leicester	6	3	0	3	+1	9
10	Newcastle	6	3	0	3	-4	9
11	Crystal Palace	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Aston Villa	5	2	0	3	+1	6
13	Arsenal	6	2	0	4	-4	6
14	Leeds	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	West Brom	6	1	2	3	-7	5
16	Man United	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Fulham	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Brighton	6	0	3	3	-4	3
20	Sheffield United	6	0	1	5	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Leicester	6	5	0	1	+8	15
3	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+10	14
4	Aston Villa	5	4	0	1	+7	12
5	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+5	11
6	Southampton	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Everton	6	3	1	2	+0	10
9	Man City	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	Crystal Palace	6	3	0	3	+0	9
11	Leeds	6	3	0	3	-1	9
12	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-5	9
13	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	+2	8
14	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Brighton	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Liverpool	6	1	4	1	-3	7
17	Burnley	6	1	2	3	-8	5
18	Fulham	6	1	1	4	-4	4
19	West Brom	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Sheffield United	6	0	0	6	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.