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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Borlido Matos

Tondela

U T T T T

2–0

Full-time

Chaves

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 22%

11%

33%

Points per game

0,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

44% Possession 56%

12 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

18 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 18. · Chaves 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	18	14	3	1	+30	45
2	Porto	18	12	5	1	+26	41
3	Sp Braga	18	11	3	4	+15	36
4	Sp Lisbon	18	10	5	3	+13	35
5	Guimaraes	18	10	4	4	+9	34
6	Chaves	18	6	9	3	+4	27
7	Maritimo	18	8	3	7	+1	27
8	Vitoria Setubal	18	7	4	7	+1	25
9	Boavista	19	6	6	7	-1	24
10	Rio Ave	18	7	3	8	-3	24
11	Arouca	18	7	2	9	-5	23
12	Belenenses	19	6	5	8	-5	23
13	Feirense	18	5	3	10	-18	18
14	Pacos Ferreira	18	4	5	9	-11	17
15	Moreirense	18	5	2	11	-12	17
16	Estoril	18	4	3	11	-10	15
17	Nacional	18	3	3	12	-14	12
18	Tondela	18	2	4	12	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+19	23
4	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+13	22
5	Maritimo	9	5	2	2	+5	17
6	Chaves	10	4	5	1	+4	17
7	Vitoria Setubal	9	5	1	3	+5	16
8	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	4	2	+0	13
9	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
10	Arouca	10	4	1	5	-1	13
11	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Belenenses	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	Boavista	9	3	2	4	+1	11
14	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-9	11
15	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-3	8
17	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	8
18	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	10	7	1	2	+7	22
3	Porto	8	3	4	1	+9	13
4	Sp Lisbon	9	3	4	2	+0	13
5	Boavista	10	3	4	3	-2	13
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Rio Ave	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Belenenses	10	3	2	5	-4	11
9	Chaves	8	2	4	2	+0	10
10	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-4	10
11	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Moreirense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
14	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-6	8
15	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Nacional	9	1	1	7	-7	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Tondela	10	0	2	8	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.