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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Nobre

Chaves

T T T U U

2–1

Full-time

Tondela

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,2

2,8

Scored

0,2

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 22%

13%

31%

Points per game

0,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

44%

50%

Both score Ø 51%

38%

63%

Average goals

2,1

2,7

Scored

0,6

1,3

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%

12 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 8

5 Offside 5

23 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Chaves 18. · Tondela 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	1	2	+24	43
2	Benfica	17	12	2	3	+20	38
3	Sp Braga	17	11	4	2	+15	37
4	Sp Lisbon	17	11	2	4	+15	35
5	Guimaraes	17	8	4	5	+5	28
6	Belenenses	17	7	7	3	+5	28
7	Moreirense	17	9	1	7	-3	28
8	Portimonense	17	7	3	7	-4	24
9	Santa Clara	17	6	3	8	-1	21
10	Rio Ave	16	5	4	7	-3	19
11	Nacional	17	5	4	8	-11	19
12	Tondela	16	5	3	8	-3	18
13	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	3	8	-3	18
14	Maritimo	17	5	2	10	-10	17
15	Boavista	17	4	4	9	-7	16
16	Feirense	17	2	7	8	-13	13
17	Aves	17	3	3	11	-13	12
18	Chaves	16	2	3	11	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Sp Braga	9	8	1	0	+15	25
3	Porto	9	8	0	1	+17	24
4	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+12	19
5	Portimonense	9	5	3	1	+6	18
6	Guimaraes	8	5	2	1	+5	17
7	Moreirense	8	5	1	2	+3	16
8	Belenenses	8	4	2	2	+3	14
9	Rio Ave	8	4	2	2	+2	14
10	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	1	4	+0	10
12	Boavista	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Maritimo	8	3	1	4	-3	10
14	Nacional	9	3	1	5	-6	10
15	Aves	9	2	3	4	+0	9
16	Feirense	8	1	5	2	-1	8
17	Santa Clara	9	2	1	6	-5	7
18	Chaves	7	1	2	4	-2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	6	1	2	+8	19
2	Porto	8	6	1	1	+7	19
3	Santa Clara	8	4	2	2	+4	14
4	Belenenses	9	3	5	1	+2	14
5	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+0	12
6	Moreirense	9	4	0	5	-6	12
7	Guimaraes	9	3	2	4	+0	11
8	Sp Lisbon	8	3	1	4	+0	10
9	Nacional	8	2	3	3	-5	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Maritimo	9	2	1	6	-7	7
13	Boavista	9	1	3	5	-6	6
14	Portimonense	8	2	0	6	-10	6
15	Rio Ave	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Feirense	9	1	2	6	-12	5
17	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Aves	8	1	0	7	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.