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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Aves

S T T S S

2–3

Full-time

Nacional

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 25%

30%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

48% Possession 52%

15 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 7

7 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aves 12. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	0	2	+15	24
2	Sp Braga	11	7	3	1	+11	24
3	Benfica	11	7	2	2	+12	23
4	Sp Lisbon	10	7	1	2	+8	22
5	Rio Ave	10	5	3	2	+4	18
6	Vitoria Setubal	11	5	2	4	+3	17
7	Moreirense	11	5	1	5	-5	16
8	Guimaraes	10	4	3	3	+3	15
9	Belenenses	11	3	6	2	+0	15
10	Santa Clara	11	4	2	5	+0	14
11	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-6	11
12	Aves	10	3	1	6	-4	10
13	Maritimo	11	3	1	7	-8	10
14	Tondela	10	2	3	5	-2	9
15	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	9
16	Feirense	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-9	9
18	Chaves	10	2	1	7	-8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+11	15
3	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+8	15
4	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Rio Ave	5	4	1	0	+5	13
6	Moreirense	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Vitoria Setubal	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Portimonense	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Aves	5	2	1	2	+2	7
11	Santa Clara	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Feirense	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Chaves	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+6	10
2	Belenenses	6	2	4	0	+2	10
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+3	8
5	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	2	2	+0	8
6	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+1	7
7	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Sp Lisbon	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Nacional	5	1	3	1	-1	6
10	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-7	6
11	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-4	5
13	Tondela	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-5	3
15	Aves	5	1	0	4	-6	3
16	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-7	3
17	Chaves	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Feirense	6	1	0	5	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.