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Primeira Liga
Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Maritimo
S U T S T
3–2
Full-time
Nacional
S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Nacional
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
1,8
4,7
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,2
3,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-2,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches
Win Ø 29%
31%
27%
Points per game
1,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 43%
27%
58%
Both score Ø 35%
27%
42%
Average goals
1,8
3,2
Scored
0,6
1,1
Conceded
1,2
2,1
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

35% Possession 65%
11 Shots 20
5 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 6
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 8
1 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Maritimo 11. · Nacional 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 27 21 3 3 +50 66
2 Porto 27 21 3 3 +39 66
3 Sp Lisbon 27 18 4 5 +25 58
4 Sp Braga 27 18 4 5 +19 58
5 Moreirense 27 14 3 10 -1 45
6 Guimaraes 27 12 6 9 +7 42
7 Belenenses 26 9 11 6 +6 38
8 Santa Clara 27 10 5 12 +0 35
9 Rio Ave 26 8 8 10 -2 32
10 Portimonense 27 9 5 13 -7 32
11 Maritimo 26 8 3 15 -15 27
12 Aves 26 7 5 14 -13 26
13 Boavista 26 7 5 14 -14 26
14 Nacional 26 7 5 14 -27 26
15 Vitoria Setubal 26 5 10 11 -7 25
16 Tondela 27 6 7 14 -12 25
17 Chaves 27 6 6 15 -19 24
18 Feirense 26 2 9 15 -29 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.