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Primeira Liga
Referee: Carlos Xistra
Sp Braga
U S S U U
3–1
Full-time
Porto
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
2,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
3,0
3,2
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,8
This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 61%
50%
71%
Points per game
1,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
42%
58%
Both score Ø 44%
38%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
1,7
2,0
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%
13 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 5
0 Offside 4
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Porto 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 25 20 1 4 +49 61
2 Sp Lisbon 25 18 5 2 +34 59
3 Porto 24 17 4 3 +30 55
4 Sp Braga 24 12 8 4 +23 44
5 Arouca 25 9 11 5 +7 38
6 Rio Ave 24 10 6 8 +1 36
7 Guimaraes 25 8 10 7 -3 34
8 Pacos Ferreira 25 8 8 9 -1 32
9 Estoril 24 8 6 10 -4 30
10 Maritimo 25 8 5 12 -12 29
11 Belenenses 25 7 8 10 -21 29
12 Nacional 25 7 7 11 -8 28
13 Vitoria Setubal 25 6 10 9 -10 28
14 Moreirense 25 7 5 13 -13 26
15 U. Madeira 25 6 7 12 -16 25
16 Academica 25 5 7 13 -18 22
17 Boavista 25 5 6 14 -16 21
18 Tondela 25 3 4 18 -22 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

25. Oct -15 Porto – Sp Braga 0–0

Match report

Sp Braga Porto
16′
🟨 André André
Ricardo Ferreira 🟨
22′
41′
🟨 Danilo Pereira
Half-time 0–0
Pedro Santos 🟨
57′
Baiano 🟨
59′
61′
🔁 V. Aboubakar
↦ Hyun-Jun Suk
64′
🟨 Bruno Martins Indi
1–0 Koka
71′
73′
🔁 Jesús Corona
↦ André André
Alan 🔁
↦ N. Stojiljković
75′
75′
🔁 M. Marega
↦ Rúben Neves
80′
🟨 Miguel Layún
85′
M. Pereira 1–1
2–1 Rafa Silva
89′
90′
🟨 Bruno Martins Indi
90′
🟥 Bruno Martins Indi
Aaron Níguez 🔁
↦ Rafa Silva
90′
Marcelo Goiano 🔁
↦ Djavan Ferreira
92′
3–1 Alan
94′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Sp Braga

28 Marafona G
15 Baiano D
24 Ricardo Ferreira D
5 W. Boly D
16 Djavan Ferreira D
8 Luiz Carlos M
63 Mauro M
18 Rafa Silva F
19 N. Stojiljković F
23 Pedro Santos M
20 Koka F
Bench (7)
30 Alan
14 Aaron Níguez
87 Marcelo Goiano
6 André Pinto
7 Wilson Eduardo
35 N.S. Vukčević
92 Matheus

Porto

12 Casillas G
2 M. Pereira D
5 Marcano D
21 M. Layún D
3 B. Martins Indi D
8 Y. Brahimi M
20 André André M
16 H. Herrera M
22 Danilo Pereira M
6 Rúben Neves M
39 Hyun-Jun Suk F
Bench (7)
9 V. Aboubakar
17 Jesús Corona
11 M. Marega
1 Helton
13 Sergio Oliveira
14 José Ángel
63 C. Awaziem

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Carlos Xistra · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.