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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Nacional

U T U T S

3–1

Full-time

Maritimo

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

30%

40%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

20%

40%

Both score Ø 45%

30%

60%

Average goals

1,6

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Nacional 12. · Maritimo 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+14	26
2	Porto	9	6	3	0	+14	21
3	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+13	20
4	Benfica	9	6	0	3	+15	18
5	Rio Ave	10	5	3	2	+5	18
6	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	5	2	+2	14
7	Maritimo	10	4	2	4	-2	14
8	Estoril	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	2	4	-3	14
10	Belenenses	10	3	4	3	-10	13
11	Arouca	10	2	6	2	+0	12
12	Nacional	10	3	2	5	-2	11
13	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-7	10
14	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	9
15	Moreirense	10	1	4	5	-7	7
16	U. Madeira	8	1	3	4	-3	6
17	Academica	10	1	3	6	-11	6
18	Tondela	10	1	2	7	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+13	15
3	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+13	13
4	Rio Ave	5	4	0	1	+3	12
5	Belenenses	5	3	2	0	+4	11
6	Estoril	5	3	2	0	+4	11
7	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
8	Maritimo	5	3	1	1	+3	10
9	Nacional	4	2	2	0	+3	8
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
11	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-1	7
12	U. Madeira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-5	4
18	Academica	5	1	1	3	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Arouca	5	1	4	0	+2	7
3	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	1	2	+1	7
4	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	7
5	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-2	7
6	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	+2	6
7	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-5	5
9	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-6	5
10	Maritimo	5	1	1	3	-5	4
11	Benfica	3	1	0	2	+2	3
12	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-5	3
13	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-7	3
14	Academica	5	0	2	3	-4	2
15	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
16	Belenenses	5	0	2	3	-14	2
17	U. Madeira	4	0	1	3	-3	1
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.