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Primeira Liga

Referee: Goncalo Martins

Aves

T T S U S

0–1

Full-time

Tondela

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 23%

23%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

46%

Both score Ø 54%

54%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

22 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

1 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aves 12. · Tondela 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	10	3	0	+26	33
2	Sp Lisbon	13	10	3	0	+19	33
3	Benfica	13	9	3	1	+21	30
4	Sp Braga	13	9	1	3	+13	28
5	Maritimo	13	7	3	3	+4	24
6	Rio Ave	14	7	2	5	+5	23
7	Guimaraes	13	6	2	5	-5	20
8	Boavista	13	5	2	6	-1	17
9	Portimonense	13	4	4	5	-1	16
10	Belenenses	13	5	1	7	-4	16
11	Chaves	13	4	3	6	-4	15
12	Aves	13	3	4	6	-7	13
13	Tondela	13	3	3	7	-5	12
14	Pacos Ferreira	13	3	3	7	-12	12
15	Feirense	13	3	2	8	-7	11
16	Vitoria Setubal	13	2	4	7	-10	10
17	Moreirense	14	1	5	8	-14	8
18	Estoril	13	2	2	9	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+20	19
2	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+17	18
3	Sp Braga	7	6	0	1	+13	18
4	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+9	17
5	Maritimo	7	5	2	0	+6	17
6	Portimonense	6	4	1	1	+6	13
7	Belenenses	6	4	1	1	+5	13
8	Rio Ave	8	4	1	3	+2	13
9	Boavista	6	4	0	2	+0	12
10	Pacos Ferreira	6	3	2	1	+2	11
11	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-4	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	3	2	+2	9
13	Chaves	6	2	2	2	+2	8
14	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Feirense	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Aves	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Moreirense	6	0	4	2	-4	4
18	Estoril	6	1	1	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+6	14
3	Benfica	7	3	3	1	+4	12
4	Rio Ave	6	3	1	2	+3	10
5	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+0	10
6	Guimaraes	7	3	1	3	-1	10
7	Aves	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	Chaves	7	2	1	4	-6	7
10	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-1	5
11	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Feirense	6	1	1	4	-3	4
13	Moreirense	8	1	1	6	-10	4
14	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-12	4
15	Portimonense	7	0	3	4	-7	3
16	Belenenses	7	1	0	6	-9	3
17	Vitoria Setubal	6	0	1	5	-12	1
18	Pacos Ferreira	7	0	1	6	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.