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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Brighton

T S T U S

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,1

1,9

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

7 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 12. · Southampton 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	1	0	+29	28
2	Man United	10	7	2	1	+19	23
3	Tottenham	10	6	2	2	+12	20
4	Chelsea	10	6	1	3	+8	19
5	Arsenal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
6	Liverpool	10	4	4	2	+1	16
7	Watford	10	4	3	3	-3	15
8	Newcastle	9	4	2	3	+2	14
9	Burnley	9	3	4	2	-1	13
10	Southampton	9	3	3	3	-1	12
11	Huddersfield	10	3	3	4	-6	12
12	Brighton	9	3	2	4	-1	11
13	Stoke	10	3	2	5	-9	11
14	West Brom	10	2	4	4	-4	10
15	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-2	9
16	West Ham	10	2	3	5	-9	9
17	Swansea	10	2	2	6	-5	8
18	Everton	9	2	2	5	-11	8
19	Bournemouth	10	2	1	7	-8	7
20	Crystal Palace	10	1	1	8	-17	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	5	5	0	0	+15	15
2	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+9	15
3	Man City	5	4	1	0	+18	13
4	Liverpool	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Newcastle	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Southampton	6	2	2	2	-1	8
8	Huddersfield	5	2	2	1	-2	8
9	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Stoke	5	2	1	2	-3	7
12	West Brom	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	West Ham	4	2	0	2	-1	6
14	Everton	5	2	0	3	-5	6
15	Burnley	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Watford	5	1	2	2	-6	5
17	Leicester	4	1	1	2	+0	4
18	Bournemouth	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	-5	4
20	Swansea	5	1	0	4	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+9	12
3	Chelsea	5	4	0	1	+6	12
4	Watford	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
6	Burnley	5	2	2	1	-1	8
7	Swansea	5	1	2	2	+0	5
8	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	5
9	Liverpool	5	1	2	2	-7	5
10	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Newcastle	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-2	4
13	Arsenal	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Huddersfield	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	West Brom	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	West Ham	6	0	3	3	-8	3
19	Everton	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Crystal Palace	5	0	0	5	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.