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Eredivisie

Referee: Christaan Bax

Utrecht

T S T T T

2–2

Full-time

NAC Breda

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

2,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,3

This season — Eredivisie · 7/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

43%

22%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

71%

56%

Both score Ø 43%

29%

56%

Average goals

3,6

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

59% Possession 41%

22 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

13 Corners 4

0 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 14. · NAC Breda 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	9	0	1	+23	27
2	Ajax	10	7	1	2	+18	22
3	Zwolle	10	6	3	1	+7	21
4	Vitesse	9	5	2	2	+10	17
5	Feyenoord	10	5	2	3	+7	17
6	AZ Alkmaar	9	5	1	3	+2	16
7	Excelsior	10	4	2	4	-1	14
8	Heerenveen	8	4	2	2	-3	14
9	Den Haag	10	4	1	5	-4	13
10	Heracles	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	VVV Venlo	10	3	3	4	-4	12
12	Twente	10	3	0	7	-2	9
13	Groningen	9	2	3	4	-3	9
14	Utrecht	7	3	0	4	-7	9
15	Willem II	10	3	0	7	-11	9
16	NAC Breda	9	2	1	6	-8	7
17	Roda	10	2	1	7	-12	7
18	Sparta Rotterdam	9	1	3	5	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Zwolle	5	5	0	0	+8	15
3	Heracles	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	Ajax	4	3	0	1	+8	9
5	Twente	5	3	0	2	+5	9
6	Groningen	6	2	3	1	+1	9
7	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Feyenoord	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Utrecht	3	2	0	1	-2	6
10	Vitesse	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Roda	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	VVV Venlo	5	1	1	3	-4	4
14	Den Haag	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	NAC Breda	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Heerenveen	4	1	1	2	-6	4
17	Willem II	5	1	0	4	-3	3
18	Excelsior	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	6	4	1	1	+10	13
2	Vitesse	5	4	1	0	+10	13
3	Excelsior	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	0	1	+12	12
5	Feyenoord	5	3	1	1	+6	10
6	Heerenveen	4	3	1	0	+3	10
7	Den Haag	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	VVV Venlo	5	2	2	1	+0	8
9	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Zwolle	5	1	3	1	-1	6
11	Willem II	5	2	0	3	-8	6
12	NAC Breda	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	Utrecht	4	1	0	3	-5	3
14	Roda	6	1	0	5	-9	3
15	Sparta Rotterdam	5	0	2	3	-8	2
16	Heracles	4	0	1	3	-5	1
17	Groningen	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Twente	5	0	0	5	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.